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vba_php 11-07-2019 06:52 PM

The global fertility crisis
 
I've heard for quite a few years now that all types of organizations are worried that the future is not going to see enough workers to replace the retiring workers of today's world. An article came threw my news feed the other day about an apparent "fertility crisis" that is occurring in the USA. Japan's low birth rate has made the news quite a few times in recent years as well. But per this link:

https://www.google.com/search?q=cnn+...rtility+crisis

South Korea apparently also has the same problem. What is everyone's view on this? The last I thing I read from the USA economists, there is predicted to be a shortage of workers in almost every industry available in the near future. I don't know if that's really true, but low birth rates certainly won't help alleviate this problem.

The_Doc_Man 11-07-2019 07:06 PM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
Actually, in a world that is probably overpopulated, it isn't a "fertility crisis." It is more of an "education crisis." We don't have the kind of workers we want because whatever we are doing isn't reaching enough kids to stimulate them into tech careers. Or, for that matter, trades/skilled careers.

While it might be mean-spirited of me to say it, we don't even have kids who have learned that most important phrase for the only jobs for which they are qualified: "You want fries with that?"

Steve R. 11-07-2019 08:04 PM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
Those who believe in anthropogenic caused "climate change" should be in favor of a fertility crises. Less people, less adverse environmental effects.

In June 2019 the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs1 projected a possible population peak of nearly 11 billion around 2100.

vba_php 11-07-2019 08:17 PM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve R. (Post 1649617)
Less people, less adverse environmental effects.

of course that makes sense, but here's my take on the whole ridiculous notion that humans have any an effect on the environment to begin with:

https://www.access-programmers.co.uk...&postcount=593

Micron 11-07-2019 08:38 PM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by vba_php (Post 1649619)
of course that makes sense, but here's my take on the whole ridiculous notion that humans have any an effect on the environment to begin with:

Of course it's all a farce and the proof of that is because it's happened before, thus there's no chance we could have any effect at all on any recurrence of the event. All I can say is wow, just wow, and that it must be nice to be so blissfully naive.

vba_php 11-07-2019 11:19 PM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Micron (Post 1649620)
the proof of that is because it's happened before, thus there's no chance we could have any effect at all on any recurrence of the event.

did u read the post I referenced!? If you even bothered, then you know I tallk about climate change specifically, not other aspects of the environment you goofball!

Tera 11-07-2019 11:32 PM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
There was a time when over-population was thought would outpace economic development and imbalances environmental and natural resource. At school, we were taught how the population growth should be controlled to keep earth a safer place for future generation. Less population meant better life because the government could take care of them better.
It was true for countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Iraq etc that has a natural resource and could sell it. If you have $100, it's better to divide it between two rather than 3. So less people to share the same income, ends up to a better life.

But for countries like Japan, Korea, China it was opposite. They have less resources and have to manufacture different products and sell it. It needs a lot of researches, experiments and tests to manufacture something. Less population means less researchers/workers and hens less economical growth.

Somewhere around 1980, China setup a one-child policy to control the population. But more than 20 years later they found out that controlling population growth, has a negative effect on GPD. They started their researches around 2005 when they had reached to a point that the average age for working people were going higher and higher. This policy ended in 2015 and each family was allowed to have two kids.

There was a time when Japan was ranked second after USA. But now, China has made his way to second and we are on third position. According to our news, if they are true at all, we are left behind and will go down to the 10th position in several years. China will stand in the first position somewhere between 2030 & 2040. Because we are suffering of a negative population growth. A lot of companies are bankrupt each year, because they can't substitute their retired employees.

So, less population may ends up to a better environment condition, but is it enough for us to have a comfortable life?

vba_php 11-08-2019 02:27 AM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tera (Post 1649626)
Somewhere around 1980, China setup a one-child policy to control the population. But more than 20 years later they found out that controlling population growth, has a negative effect on GPD. They started their researches around 2005 when they had reached to a point that the average age for working people were going higher and higher. This policy ended in 2015 and each family was allowed to have two kids.

I was under the impression that China was still restricting families to one child. So what's the current policy? Is it still 2 kids maximum?

Tera 11-08-2019 03:26 AM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by vba_php (Post 1649633)
I was under the impression that China was still restricting families to one child. So what's the current policy? Is it still 2 kids maximum?

The last time we had it in our news, it was 2 kids maximum. But there will be no limitation in near feature.

The next country that chasing China is India. They have a very high growth in population and will be the highest populated country in the world in several years. (as far as I can remember it was in 10 years. But not sure)

You see, my friend? Population is a weapon. Imagine if 1 in every 10000 person in India joins the high tech industry, they are far ahead of us.

vba_php 11-08-2019 05:54 AM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tera (Post 1649637)
Imagine if 1 in every 10000 person in India joins the high tech industry

I have worked with many businesses that are obsessed with hiring people from industry to work in software. However, I think their motivation is to purchase cheap labor. But that won't last long, as I've read that Indian workers are getting smarter about how much their skills are worth and they will soon be requesting appropriate salaries if they haven't started doing it already.

The_Doc_Man 11-08-2019 06:26 AM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
Quote:

I think their motivation is to purchase cheap labor.
To be honest, EVERY employer's goal is to obtain labor as cheaply as possible. Competition not only is for the best employees, but the best employees at the best price. Always has been. Always will be. If your business is making only a marginal profit, expensive employees will bankrupt you in no time.

Micron 11-08-2019 06:29 AM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by vba_php (Post 1649625)
did u read the post I referenced!? If you even bothered, then you know I tallk about climate change specifically, not other aspects of the environment you goofball!

Yes I did read it. That makes your retort all the more stupid because climate change is exactly what i was referring to. That's all I'm going to say because I won't descend to your level.

AccessBlaster 11-08-2019 06:53 AM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Micron (Post 1649620)
Of course it's all a farce and the proof of that is because it's happened before, thus there's no chance we could have any effect at all on any recurrence of the event. All I can say is wow, just wow, and that it must be nice to be so blissfully naive.

The devastating part of these historical events isn't the human interaction, it's the reciprocal nature of these events. They are coming whether or not humans are present.

Do we contribute to the problems, yes.

Future events like cooling, warming, asteroids and earthquakes are still coming. We have zero control.

jdraw 11-08-2019 06:58 AM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
For anyone interested in the Innovation in India (mentioned in post#10) here is a link to a Ted Talk that puts the topic into context.

The_Doc_Man 11-08-2019 07:01 AM

Re: The global fertility crisis
 
vba_php, I read your link on global warming. While I happen to agree that the man-made part is shaky, there is no doubt that climate changes are under way. Did you make that post in the thread we have on the subject? It is in the Politics and Global Events forum.


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