Scottish Independence (1 Viewer)

Mile-O · Aug 29, 2014

With only three weeks to go until the people of Scotland vote in a referendum to decide if they want to be independent from the United Kingdom, perhaps it's time to see if AWF wants a discussion. After all, there's enough voices from around the world on this forum to offer up some new perspectives.

For those that don't know, the question on the ballot will be: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

Personally, I'm on the Yes side. The current UK set-up is ever more corrupt and alarming, and it would be ideal to break away from that and step out into whatever brave new world is out there, whatever the consequences.

namliam · Aug 29, 2014

One of my few non-access related matter post on this forum :banghead:

With the ongoing world globalization and international cooperations I do not understand why small provinces would want to be their seperate country (i.e. Yugoslavia back in the day, or Friesland here in the netherlands or Scotland out there)

Just egotistical self serving meglomaniacs that want moar power and moar money driving these kinds of ideas.

In a time where a global organisation like the UN can meddle in a local custom like Sinterklaas and his Zwarte piet, why bother having your own country and own culture?

Mile-O · Aug 29, 2014

namliam said:
With the ongoing world globalization and international cooperations I do not understand why small provinces would want to be their seperate country (i.e. Yugoslavia back in the day, or Friesland here in the netherlands or Scotland out there)

I would say self-determination. The chance to be represented since the representation offered now is representation almost in name alone. Certainly there are regions around the world within countries - Friesland, Flanders, Basque Country, etc. - that would see themselves take steps onto the world stage, but the Scotland/UK situation is a little different in that Scotland has always been a country in its own right, except for a legal union in 1707, which is what the independence here is effectively from.

Just egotistical self serving meglomaniacs that want moar power and moar money driving these kinds of ideas.

I daresay there's an element of that in any politician, but it would be good for the money made in Scotland to stay in Scotland and benefit that nation. For the decisions made here to impact here alone. The social situation varies across the UK but the current system does not reflect that.

In a time where a global organisation like the UN can meddle in a local custom like Sinterklaas and his Zwarte piet, why bother having your own country and own culture?

Dat begrijp ik. Laatste December, wann ik mijn België kantoor bezoekt, ik ervart mijn eerste en enige Sinterklaas. (Sorry, mjn Nederlands is niet zo goed, maar ik probier.)

namliam · Aug 29, 2014

Close but no sigar Mile-O, good enough to understand what you are saying.... Though Sinterklaas in Belgium is just Pft compared to Sinterklaas (intocht) in The Netherlands!

Pepernoten and TaaiTaai are must tries and must haves during the season.
They are so popular that they end up in stores earlier and earlier each year (already in some stores NOW)

Besides that fact, any dutch speaking belgian person (aka flamish person or flaamse belg or "Reserve nederlander") will scream FLAMISH NOT DUTCH at you !

Back on subject. Belgium, France, Germany, Denmark all countries in their own right but for the union in the EU. Replacing one bad system with a simular bad system doesnt fix the problem, it just shifts the problem.
Nothing is perfect, just always the grass is greener on the other side.
Just think of all the money going to be spent on making Basque a seperate country... Or Scotland, or what has been destroyed in goods in seperations like Yugoslavia and Tjech/slovakia and now Ukrain vs Russia...

Obviiously and offcourse this will not happen with Scottland seperating (as much) since it will be "civil", however, re-inventing the wheel always costs a lot of money one place or another that can be spend more wisely.

Brianwarnock · Aug 29, 2014

Scotland is a country based on a line drawn by the Romans when they built their wall.

I hope they vote yes thus removing the opportunity for Labour to get in power in the rest of the UK and ruining the economy.

I hope they vote no as it is merely an ego trip by Alex Salmond.

We have non scots who are living in Scotland at the moment having the vote , and Scots living in England at the moment not having the vote.

Just for the record I only need to go back a few generations to find my Scot's and Welsh lineage.

Brian

AnthonyGerrard · Aug 29, 2014

Its tempting - I'm in the North of England - and frankly I think we'd all vote to be independent of everything being South East Orientated.

But also Scotland being independent may make that even worse for us perhaps. Can we join you?

I'm not sure about the SNP's idea of keeping monetary union - how will that work. Or threatening not to pay the shared debt?

I think a real viable party that looks to the prosperity of the UK as a whole instead of just millionaires in London is whats needed. HS3 cost of 10billion to link all the Northern cities in high speed rail - less than the cost of one of the many suburban commuter lines in London (Crossrail).

Otherwise good luck to you - who needs your deep fried mars bars and iron brew anyway.

The corrupt and alarming UK government has had more than its fair share of scots over the last 2 decades, I may add.

Mile-O · Aug 29, 2014

Brianwarnock said:
Scotland is a country based on a line drawn by the Romans when they built their wall.

Scotland's lost some land, then. Hadrian's Wall is completely inside England.

I hope they vote yes thus removing the opportunity for Labour to get in power in the rest of the UK and ruining the economy.

If that was true, that Labour needed Scotland to effectively assume power in the UK, then they may have been less likely to sway right from their lefty roots. However, out of the post-war elections, I think it's only twice that the the vote in Scotland affected this. Certainly over the Blair's elections (1997, 2001, 2005) England, Wales, & Northern Ireland could effectively have done that all by themselves. It's just the majority that would have been reduced.

I hope they vote no as it is merely an ego trip by Alex Salmond.

And thus you put the hopes and aspirations of many people in the nation into one person. One person who, it should be noted, is only the current figurehead for a movement that has been underway far longer than he has been on the planet. Twenty years down the line he'll likely be gone, another figurehead in his place.

We have non scots who are living in Scotland at the moment having the vote , and Scots living in England at the moment not having the vote.

Nothing wrong with that. Surely the people who live and work here are best placed to decide the future of their homeland rather than those who have already left.

Mile-O · Aug 29, 2014

AnthonyGerrard said:
But also Scotland being independent may make that even worse for us perhaps. Can we join you?

It may well be difficult on both sides for the first number of years. Should Scotland vote Yes then there will have to be money spent on setting up institutions to facilitate the running of the country. Maybe the north can have its own referendum. Or maybe a more federalised UK will become a possibility. Perhaps London can be like Singapore...a separate city-state.

I'm not sure about the SNP's idea of keeping monetary union - how will that work. Or threatening not to pay the shared debt?

At the end of the day, the negotiations wouldn't fall to the SNP alone but a cross-party outfit. The SNP can't expect to immediately assume power, they'd have to be elected in future, too. Scotland, being to the left, may very well be happy with a left Scottish Labour, one excised from the centrist -and ever right-leaning UK Labour - that could potentially arise. I suppose the shared debt thing is a technicality, given that it's the UK's debt, the UK currently inclusive of Scotland, so for a new recognised country outside of the UK, it wouldn't legally have to take it's share. Although the negotiations would certainly see a share taken. Quid pro quo.

Otherwise good luck to you - who needs your deep fried mars bars and iron brew anyway.

Hey, with the oil running out we'll need to start eating them raw.

Brianwarnock · Aug 29, 2014

Mile-O said:
Nothing wrong with that. Surely the people who live and work here are best placed to decide the future of their homeland rather than those who have already left.

A new member of our walking group is a Scot who is here because his wife who still works was transferred here by her company, they hope to move back to Scotland and certainly will when she also retires. He would vote no but gets no vote. I don't have an answer but it seems unjust that a vote with long term implications can be affected by short term residency.

Brian

Uncle Gizmo · Aug 29, 2014

I think its happening because "Salmon-d" wants to be a big fish in a little pond.

scott-atkinson · Sep 1, 2014

The Scot's would be mental to go it alone, but then again most of the Scots I have ever met have been mental so a Yes Vote seems inevitable..

Just leave the money for your part of the national debt on the sideboard before you leave..

WhiteRex · Sep 2, 2014

I think the vote will actually be a lot closer than I originally predicted

Mile-O · Sep 4, 2014

WhiteRex said:
I think the vote will actually be a lot closer than I originally predicted

What did you originally predict?

Cotty42 · Sep 4, 2014

The current UK set-up is ever more corrupt and alarming

Couldn't that be said of any political establishment. I don't know of a single politician that has entered politics for the good of the country - they are all their for their own gratification and to line their own pockets. You can always tell when politicians are lying - because their lips move!

Rx_ · Sep 4, 2014

Was just reading about this on the light-rail this morning.
The Telegraph has a Chicken Little story about how the independence would cause the Euro Union sky to fall.

The Scottish understand business. Go independent, the Euro union will want you back so bad, the bribes alone to rejoin would be good for business. Dragie (sp, pun) is so desperate to keep his printing press going.

If the paper money printing and debt load of the Euro is already that bad as described, then the Scottish should release the yoke of bondage now.
I worry that the US leadership (not so much the voters) is throwing Euro under the wheels so a couple of "too big to fail" bankers can profit. It is important to the US bankers that the Euro fail first. I don't like the facts that bankers run the show here. But, what is new? Chalk it up to Tradition.

While the Euro is not the only currency racing to the bottom by printing debt that can never be repaid, this is an opportunity for the Scottish to opt out before things get really ugly. There seems to be a re-inactment of pre- World War One where all the countries were trying to out print each other. Then, it was up to the serfs to fight a war. We really don't learn.
Bottom line, any country that lives beyond its means and gives bankers the license to print unlimited debt does not end up well.

Iceland was suppose to fall into anarchy when it dropped out and defaulted on the Euro bankers. So much for predictions.

Rabbie · Sep 4, 2014

Brianwarnock said:
I hope they vote yes thus removing the opportunity for Labour to get in power in the rest of the UK and ruining the economy.

Brian

A common misconception. Only in 1964 and 1974 did a labour government get elected just because of the Scottish votes.

Conservatives were the largest party in Scotland until the 1959 general election but now there are more pandas in Scotland than tory MPs

AnthonyGerrard · Sep 5, 2014

Rabbie said:
A common misconception. Only in 1964 and 1974 did a labour government get elected just because of the Scottish votes.

Conservatives were the largest party in Scotland until the 1959 general election but now there are more pandas in Scotland than tory MPs

http://leftfootforward.org/2014/03/...is-inevitable-and-labour-will-lose-the-house/

There have been 9 labour governments since 1945. 2 of which wouldn't have formed at all. (one was a minority anyway) ,2 more of which would have been minority governments. Add in what would have been the 2010 conservative victory.

So Labours would have had
Just 5 majority ( + 2 minority) governments from 18 attempts. (losing one minor to a loss, 2 majors to minors and one maj to a loss)

Instead of 8 in 18 attempts. (+ 1 minority)

All things being equal (which they wont be) Labours chances of forming a majority aren't great.

Rx_ · Sep 10, 2014

Just a general observation from various financial news releases.
The poll before the election indicates it may pass (independence has support)
The Scots are being offered counter incentives to not go independent
The financial institutions recommend pulling out of all Brit investments right away
The Pound value could drop (and the Euro value) since all the banks, bonds, and credits are vastly over-leveraged and use layer after layer of paper debt to build on each other.
The predictions on the Pound value drop range from 5% to 20%
If this independence happens, there are other Euro groups that may be encouraged

Anyway, for those who subscribe to investment news groups, this is a big deal lately.
In general, it is not pro or con independence. It shines a spotlight on how fragile the Pound as a currency has become based on debt.
It is my suspicion that the US Federal Reserve has a profit interest in scaring investments away from Europe to bring them back to the USD.
Although from my point of view, the USD is just the lesser ugly baby in an ugly baby contest.
That is just a summary of the news that I read.

AnthonyGerrard · Sep 11, 2014

Rx_ said:
Just a general observation from various financial news releases.
The poll before the election indicates it may pass (independence has support)
The Scots are being offered counter incentives to not go independent
The financial institutions recommend pulling out of all Brit investments right away
The Pound value could drop (and the Euro value) since all the banks, bonds, and credits are vastly over-leveraged and use layer after layer of paper debt to build on each other.
The predictions on the Pound value drop range from 5% to 20%
If this independence happens, there are other Euro groups that may be encouraged

Anyway, for those who subscribe to investment news groups, this is a big deal lately.
In general, it is not pro or con independence. It shines a spotlight on how fragile the Pound as a currency has become based on debt.
It is my suspicion that the US Federal Reserve has a profit interest in scaring investments away from Europe to bring them back to the USD.
Although from my point of view, the USD is just the lesser ugly baby in an ugly baby contest.
That is just a summary of the news that I read.

Yes looks like at least 5 years economic pain for either side of the border for a yes vote. Better to go for the DevoMax - and allow this in all the regions. Any upside of a yes vote for Scotland - well that's a 50/50 call - after the immediate pain.

Not worth it as far as I am concerned. All for the movement of power from Westminster though.

Mile-O · Sep 11, 2014

AnthonyGerrard said:
Better to go for the DevoMax - and allow this in all the regions.

The only problem there is that there is no DevoMax option on the referendum card and there's not going to be DevoMax after the referendum, since the vague promise of 'more powers' does not constitute DevoMax. Plus, no further referendum to the rest of of the UK on whether they wouldn want to federalise.

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