American Debt/Deficit Spending Crisis II (1 Viewer)

Thales750 · May 12, 2011

Access_guy49 said:
Wouldn't work, Lower prices just mean the short makes the money on the futures.. Either the seller makes the money, or the buyer does....

It has worked before Clinton did it on a number of occasions.

Recently we have witnessed the underwriters of the futures in the oil business requiring more liquidity. Hence the price has fallen.

Supply and demand don’t apply to crude oil prices, except that very small changes in the supply create very large bubbles in pricing. Bubbles are by their very nature fragile. So a temporary release of 1 or 2 percent will cost big money to the one buying calls (long) and will as you say increase the profits for the puts (short). However if you do this with any regularity the bulls will be more reluctant to push up the price.

So the effect will be to reduce the spiraling price in short term “perceived” dips in production.

The entire oil business is the worst case of price fixing in history. I just read an article by one of the conservative talking heads. Guess what he said, build more refineries. LOL

We are currently running at 85% of capacity. Blame it on the government for not issuing permits. How about this why in 2006 when oil was $145 a barrel, we were paying less at the pump.

Some could make a case that the devalued dollar is responsible, and there is a point there. However, until we get our production above our consumption, a falling dollar is not only inevitable but also desirable.

It’s like the old saying no pain no gain.

Access_guy49 · May 16, 2011

Thales750 said:
However, until we get our production above our consumption, a falling dollar is not only inevitable but also desirable.

OK so all the first bit makes sense now, i'll agree, seems like it could work.
Could you explain how a falling dollar is "desirable" when produciton is NOT above consumption...
To me it would be logical to want the opposite. If your consumption is higher than what you are able to produce, then you will need to import to meet consumption... a higher dollar is therefor desired... right?

Thales750 · May 17, 2011

On another note:

WASHINGTON – The government has maxed out its credit card.
The United States reached its $14.3 trillion limit on federal borrowing Monday, leaving Congress 11 weeks to raise the threshold or risk a financial panic or another recession.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner formally notified Congress that the government would halt its investments in two federal pension plans so it won't exceed the borrowing limit.
Geithner said the government could get by with bookkeeping maneuvers like that through Aug. 2. After that, the government could default on its debt for the first time, threatening the national credit rating and the dollar.
Geithner sent Congress a letter saying he would be unable to make the pension investments in full. He urged Congress to raise the debt limit "in order to protect the full faith and credit of the United States and avoid catastrophic economic consequences for citizens."
Republican leaders in the House have said they won't raise the debt limit unless the Obama administration first agrees to big spending cuts or to steps to lower the debt over the long run.
House Speaker John Boehner repeated the pledge in a statement Monday. The statement did not address Geithner's warning about what would happen if the limit were not raised.

No matter what happens in the next few years, the Dollar is going to fall and keeping falling until we bring back wealth creating jobs.

I have been warning of this for 4 years. Everyone said that it could not happen, but it is. We are on the verge of a collapse of the currency.

Congress must act to increase the tax on the wealthiest and they must make it conducive to invest in US wealth building activities.

What is going to happen, one way or another, is that manufacturing must be in the USA.

In the short term we must develop more energy production, because energy prices are the most affected by devalued Dollars.

Access_guy49 · May 17, 2011

If you want a higher dollar, raise the interest rates...
I think the US is currently at .25??
where in 2007 they were flirting around the 5.25% mark... With such low interest rates, your bound to have a low dollar.

Adam Caramon · May 17, 2011

Thales750 said:
Congress must act to increase the tax on the wealthiest...

Absolutely. We need to stop thinking we're the greatest, smartest nation in the world and start looking at other developed nations that have already figured some of these problems out. Namely, taxation, healthcare, and education.

Thales750 · May 17, 2011

Access_guy49 said:
If you want a higher dollar, raise the interest rates...
I think the US is currently at .25??
where in 2007 they were flirting around the 5.25% mark... With such low interest rates, your bound to have a low dollar.

We want it to fall, just as long as it stops falling before it hits China, LOL

Fifty2One · May 18, 2011

The depressed US dollar is a boon for the people living along the political border between Canada and USA. Canadians are heading into the US to buy all sorts of items which is stimulating a lot of local economical growth in the northern states. Would be more wide spread economic growth if it was not so profitable to sell products made in Asia.

Fifty2One · May 18, 2011

OPEC policies do not bother USA so much as the Saudis have already fallen to 3rd on the list by volume of oil suppliers to the USA. Soon Saudis will be bumped to 4th as Venezuela edges them out so USA can stop complaining about Arab interests in the control of oil, even though Venezuela are a member of OPEC.

Thales750 · May 18, 2011

Fifty2One said:
OPEC policies do not bother USA so much as the Saudis have already fallen to 3rd on the list by volume of oil suppliers to the USA. Soon Saudis will be bumped to 4th as Venezuela edges them out so USA can stop complaining about Arab interests in the control of oil, even though Venezuela are a member of OPEC.

True, but all oil prices are on a global spot market, regardless of origin of supply or country of demand.

Fifty2One · May 19, 2011

Actually North America is quite lucky to have fuel prices which are lower then many places in the world. Elsewhere in the world, on an individual basis, there are people who really feel the squeeze simply for home heating, let alone owning and operating a vehicle.

Thales750 said:
True, but all oil prices are on a global spot market, regardless of origin of supply or country of demand.

Thales750 · May 20, 2011

Scattered thoughts from a dimented mind, that would be me.

We are seeing a rebirth of American Industry.

By 2016 the Chinese will no longer have a wages advantage.

This year Volkswagen is building a 1B dollar plant in Tennessee to take advantage of lower wages and the possibility of a devalued dollar.

Everything I have said for the last 4 years is coming to fruition. They announced that the DOE is providing a 797 million dollar loan guarantee to build a solar power plant in Eastern California.

So much for the conservatives denouncing the current administration, what did the Republicans spend all of our money on, in the last administration? Oh yeah I remember, 2000 billions on getting rid of one dictator.
I am here to prove all that they say, is pure canard.

Seriously, how could any one except the very rich be a Republican?

Here’s what happening in the world of energy.

http://www.powergenworldwide.com/index/display/articledisplay/0673054399/articles/power-engineering-international/volume-18/Issue-7/regulars/world-news/AMERICAS.html

Steve R. · May 21, 2011

Thales750 said:
By 2016 the Chinese will no longer have a wages advantage.

This year Volkswagen is building a 1B dollar plant in Tennessee to take advantage of lower wages and the possibility of a devalued dollar.

Exactly. The solution to our manufacturing problem is increased wages in the developing world and a devalued dollar. Now if our politicians can only be responsible with our budget.

Access_guy49 · May 25, 2011

Thales750 said:
Here’s what happening in the world of energy.

http://www.powergenworldwide.com/index/display/articledisplay/0673054399/articles/power-engineering-international/volume-18/Issue-7/regulars/world-news/AMERICAS.html

Green energy is getting too much momentum in my opinion.
Not saying that I am a proponent of "dirty" power... but there are some serious problems that are not being well addressed with green energy which i fear will cause it to have a falling out. 2 steps fwd 1 step back if you will.

Look at the green energy projects that were used in Ontario as make work projects to help overcome the recession... In many cases there were huge premiums paid out to contractors.. poor locations, infrastructure not able to handle the projects.. it was all a pour use of tax dollars in my opinion. and we are now looking at a HUGE increase in home energy bills (45%) in the next 5 years based on these projects paying out 80 cents per KWH but current rates reflecting a small fraction of that.
Not to mention, these methods are all well and good when the sun shines and the wind is there.. but on a calm hot night in summer. you're going to be out of luck if you don't have RELIABLE power.

Green energy has a serious storage of energy problem that needs to be better addressed before it becomes a solution worth the money.

Not to mention conservation is not getting the attention it deserves.
As per the article quoted:
"Spain based Abengoa Solar, a unit of Abengoa SA, has been awarded $1.45bn in loan guarantees by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to support the construction and start up of the 250 MW Solana CSP plant near Phoenix, Ariziona."

Do the math... take 1.45 BILLION dollars.. and invest that in LED light bulbs.. or in Compact flourecent bulbs.. if you do the math for how many 60W bulbs you would replace with either a 13W or 3W bulb.... the amount of energy you save is like.. 1000 times what you can produce with this 250MW power plant.
(I did the math once for a 600 mill dollar wind turbine project in ontario.. it's a HUGE difference)

Steve R. · May 25, 2011

Access_guy49 said:
Green energy is getting too much momentum in my opinion.

Green energy not yet ready for prime time.

The problem with green energy now is that is is subsidized by the government. So you are not paying a true cost of using green energy. Additionally, we have a massive deficit problem meaning that the government subsidy is only making the deficit situation worse.

The "correct" solution to encourage the use of green energy is to eliminate all subsidies and increase (through taxation) the price of traditional fuels.

My unsubstantiated belief is that the granting government subsidies simply encourages fraud by those who claim to be selling green energy.

Access_guy49 · May 25, 2011

Steve R. said:
Green energy not yet ready for prime time.

The problem with green energy now is that is is subsidized by the government. So you are not paying a true cost of using green energy. Additionally, we have a massive deficit problem meaning that the government subsidy is only making the deficit situation worse.

The "correct" solution to encourage the use of green energy is to eliminate all subsidies and increase (through taxation) the price of traditional fuels.

My unsubstantiated belief is that the granting government subsidies simply encourages fraud by those who claim to be selling green energy.

"change is not the problem, it's the rate of change"
You can't just increase tax on dirty fuels in order to align them with green energy costs and then say, ok that's it, we're all good to go now.
The economy wouldn't be able to adjust fast enough. People wouldn't be able to afford basic energy for their homes, businesses ect.. You get a blip in gas prices and it throws some companies and people for a loop. And the amount you would have to increase is HUGE.

Not to mention.. NONE of that addresses the real problem of green energy not being reliable.
Tax the Sh*t out of gas and oil and guess what.. at night with no wind, your still using gas/oil/coal/nuclear..... and you have to build your grid for that demand.. which means you can't even shut down plants until you have a RELIABLE green energy. After that point, costs will take care of themselves. because there will be a universal need for green energy and production will boom.

Adam Caramon · May 26, 2011

Green energy needs to be invested in by the government in order for it to be reliable in the future. If we only ever did what made immediate financial sense, we would not have a lot of the programs that we currently take for granted.

Most people agree that relying on oil is a bad idea. Most people agree that harnessing cleaner energy is the way to go. As such, we need to increase governmental support of green energy.

The truth of the matter is that a lot of republican money is tied into oil. They would lose their rear ends if reliable green energy became cost efficient. As such they have every incentive not to support it becoming so.

If they refuse to do so, then the government should force them to through taxation.

Access_guy49 · May 30, 2011

Adam Caramon said:
Green energy needs to be invested in by the government in order for it to be reliable in the future. If we only ever did what made immediate financial sense, we would not have a lot of the programs that we currently take for granted.

Most people agree that relying on oil is a bad idea. Most people agree that harnessing cleaner energy is the way to go. As such, we need to increase governmental support of green energy.

The truth of the matter is that a lot of republican money is tied into oil. They would lose their rear ends if reliable green energy became cost efficient. As such they have every incentive not to support it becoming so.

If they refuse to do so, then the government should force them to through taxation.

The problem is that there is NO technology currently available to store electricity in large quantities for long periods of time. It has very little to do with taxation and everything to do with the technology not being there. The money is there. Anyone who gets a patent on a technology that would allow green energy production to become truely useable on a global market would have the next black gold... we just are not there yet.

The cost of green energy would come down if there was more of it. yes.. but why have more of it if you can't store the energy?? it doesn't make sense yet.
Nuclear stores it's energy in the fuel rods, Coal power in the coal.. ect.. it's the same reason why electric cars are having problems. Gas is a transportable, storable energy medium. We need that for green energy before it's worth implimenting as a "solution"

American Debt/Deficit Spending Crisis II (1 Viewer)

Thales750

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Access_guy49

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Thales750

Formerly Jsanders

Access_guy49

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Adam Caramon

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Thales750

Formerly Jsanders

Fifty2One

Legend in my own mind

Fifty2One

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Thales750

Formerly Jsanders

Fifty2One

Legend in my own mind

Thales750

Formerly Jsanders

Steve R.

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Access_guy49

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Steve R.

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Access_guy49

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Adam Caramon

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Access_guy49

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