It is strange how you/I/we assemble some parameters and "see the right solution", only to be progressively redirected as "facts" evolve and are put into context.
I figure if I am right half the time then I am doing better than most of the batters for baseball teams. Of course right is a lot a times the opinion the person. One person's right is another person's wrong.
I recently completely re-created a report (in Crystal Reports). I had made some some assumptions about the data and how Crystal Reports would handle that data.
There is one time when I am almost ALWAYS right. That time is when someone invites me to bet on a particular sporting event and I decline. Hindsight usually shows that I was right to decline to bet, because my viewpoint would have been costly.