Watch David Stockman short video. By generally following his lead over the decades, I am in a better position for 2016 worldwide recession.
Is your Small Business ready for the economic changes of 2016?
At the end of 2015, I posted a small poll on this site about the economy in 2015.
Few here took part in it. My prediction was that the government would not shut down (just print more debt) and that the stock market would fall 5% on New Year.
Actually, I cashed out of the Stock market in early December and set a few positions to profit if the Stock Market were to fall in 90 days. Remember all of the predictions then of yet another stock market surge in 2016? That worked out to be very profitable position exceeding even my negative outlook!
Another subject of great interest to me is the Baltic Dry Index
(BDI) and the Maritime Union job markets. In my opinion, it is the best leading indicator of world business. Since 92% of everything we eat, consume, build with, wear, and basically use has been on a ship at some point. This covers iron ore, cotton, to the roof over our heads. (Yes, the ingredients for your beer too!)
Fast Forward 2016:
The last quarter of 2015, the Baltic Dry Index dropped hugely. It dropped to the lowest level since records were kept
. Like the Internet has grown, it is hard to describe how modern ships capacity has grown. Imagine if world Internet went back to dial-up modems? Back in April 2015 to November 2015, many of the leading economic publications claimed once again that the Baltic Dry Index is no longer a future indicator in our new "Services Economy". Same old stories.
Already in 2016, the Baltic Dry Index has fallen off the cliff. Jobs in the Maritime Unions are now the worst since the 1980's. The gap between the Baltic Dry Index and S&P 500 is just beyond description. My estimation is a 20% drop in the economy. But, a 70% drop would not be a total surprise.
Would be interested to hear what others plan to do in 2016.
How do you see the outlook for your small business or business segments?
Best of Luck in 2016
"I tell you, we are here on earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different" - Kurt Vonnegut