Could You Survive a Carrington Event?

[Cotswold]

A Carrington Event solar storm would wipe out electrical substations leaving your computers and mobiles disabled, or destroyed. Are all your bank and investment details stored digitally? Rendering them inaccessible and deniable. Do you have paper backups of your financial details? Would all of your investments survive such an event? How could you draw money from a bank that has no network links? A hundred years ago you could write a cheque and the staff at the bank knew you. Not any more. Some banks don't exist but are floating around the internet. Would Google and others with a similar business model be bankrupted instantly? Recovery time from a Carrington Event is estimated by some to be 4 to 10 years with an incalculable cost.

In the aftermath of such an event this year, next year, or beyond, it does appear that we are less likely to physically survive than at any earlier point in time. Would society basically slip back to the state we were in 1,000 or 2,000 years ago? Imagine no electricity for a year or more. We’d all be pretty low down the pyramid of Maslow's hierarchy of needs, that’s for sure. On the plus side the auroras would be spectacular.

Mind you if you happened to be flying at the time, landing safely somewhere would probably be out of the question.

 

[Steve R.]

I think such an event would push us back, in terms of technology, to just the mid 1800s. This would be just before we became dependent on electricity. Technologies that would remain available in the event of a Carrington Event would include the use of hydrocarbons, steam engines and/or diesel engines. Se we could have steam powered cars, diesel trains, and dirigibles. Our financial data would obviously be an abolute mess. Back to the gold standard?

There is also a question of how long it would take to recover. A couple of concerns. 1) Was it a one time incident? 2) Are the electronics actually destroyed or will they simply return to service once electricity becomes available?

A negative concern with a Carrington Event (should it occur) is that we many not able to support the world population as it currently exists. This would also disable (temporarily?) many Green Energy efforts that we are increasingly dependent on.

The possibility of what a world would look like, should electricity disappear on a hypothesized permanent basis, was explored in the TV series: Revolution. From memory, this series went off-the-rails in the second season. The series was cancelled. Also from memory, was the irritating fact that the series apparently overlooked the possibility of using steam and/or diesel technologies.

 

[Cotswold]

I think such an event would push us back, in terms of technology, to just the mid 1800s.

I'm not sure we could use steam because we (in England) haven't the coal mines. Let alone able to get the coal out. And if a ship came here full of coal we'd have to barrow it off. But what transport would move it to where we need it? Plus all our machinery requires electricity. So unless we can use water power initially to drive the machines to build steam engines we're stuck. Before I moved into IT, I was an engineer. I could no doubt build these engines and train others. But there aren't many now with my experience. I don't know of a single location in the county I live in with a factory that could be used. Whilst it was simple to convert a belt driven machine to an electric motor, it will be impossible to convert machines driven by electricity to reverse that operation.

How would you lift tons of steel never mind transport it? To handle the materials you'll need hand operated cranes, which today do not exist. Except maybe in the odd museum. If you want any diesel then you'll need hand pumps to move it from tank to vehicle. We haven't got any hand pumps, let alone somewhere to make them. We also don't have many who would have the faintest idea how to use a forge, a lathe, or hand tools.

Horses were extensively used well into the 20th century, but who do you know who can build a cart for a horse to pull? Shire horses are a novelty today and never used for work. Up to the war people used buses and cycles. Cars and motor cycles were the exception until the 1950s. Within weeks all local petrol and diesel would be gone and if you needed to go anywhere you will be walking or on a bike.

The opinion is that a Carrington Event will transmit through all electrical cables from sub stations fairly quickly. So you PC, TV, cooker would explode or be destroyed beyond use, before you could get to pull the plug out. Who will make the new substations? Who will turn copper ore into wire? The list goes on.

I don't think that the 1800s is at all possible. More like 800s.

 

[Uncle Gizmo]

would wipe out electrical substations

Excellent post thank you. I am going to make paper backups at the first opportunity!

I highlighted the substation part of your comment because I would like to add further information that you may or may not know.

I was looking into the possibility of burning straw with a mobile plant, and have the electricity generated pumped into the grid as various locations across England.

I discovered that for each location I would need to construct a transformer especially designed for the particular access point, you couldn't just have one standard transformer which would do every location!

This also means that l substation, the majority at least have to have their transformers designed for that specific location.

In the event you describe, if it took out many substations, then it could be many months, possibly years before all of the damaged substations could be replaced!

 

[Cotswold]

@Uncle Gizzmo : If you don't have the proof, in your mind you can just hear them if the situation arose.

"Well Uncle Gizmo, we've done a very detailed search through all of our systems and we haven't any record of you having an account with us. We can also confirm that there isn't anyone of that address with an account. Goodbye and have a nice day"

 

[Pat Hartman]

I think you'd be looking at a 50% death rate within the first six months. No one who relies on medication such as insulin would survive much past their on hand supply of medication. The elderly would also go early. Only those who had family who could take them in and support them could live past the initial crisis. Many would die over the fight for food. The grocery stores would be stripped within a couple of days. If you don't have a stash at home, you're SOL unless you can scavenge enough to eat until you could find a way to grow your own. That means getting out of the cities ASAP and probably heading south. Once the water system fails, potable water will be in short supply in the cities. If you have a bicycle, you would have a reasonable form of transportation. However, you would have to fight to keep it. Do you have guns available? You will need them. Ammunition will be very difficult to find.

Money and investments are meaningless since you can't eat them and they won't keep you warm. It would be many years before they could ever recover and even if you have paper records (I do), it wouldn't matter. No one would be willing to accept checks for years. Barter is all we would have for quite a while. So, warm clothes, boots, food, tools, jewelry, etc. will be currency.

We have books, we have knowledge. That would put us in a position to recover some kinds of technology within a few years. Things like trains are possible once we can find ancient coal fired engines and then maybe diesels once we can refine oil. Small dams can generate electricity that can be used locally. The national grid is very far into the future. Once you can get local electricity, you can build much more quickly. At least we have power lines. It is a matter of recovering sufficient technology to connect them to the power generated by the dams.

 

[Cotswold]

We have books, we have knowledge. That would put us in a position to recover some kinds of technology within a few years. Things like trains are possible once we can find ancient coal fired engines and then maybe diesels once we can refine oil.

I recall in the 1960s all libraries had shelves of books on engineering. Bookshops were the same. I’d bet that you’d be hard put to find a single one today. Presumably all of those books were destroyed as being irrelevant in the bright new modern world. I doubt that you’d find a book on using a lathe or a milling machine except for something very basic.

You cannot learn accuracy and skill from a book. You cannot learn tolerances and fits from a book. It takes time and experience to create something that is accurate within 1/1000th an inch. Nor will you learn the multitude of trivial knowledge necessary on coolants, tool sharpening, machining different metals etc. One thing for certain we’ll not be building steam trains in a couple of years.

The books would need to be from the 20th century. So many non-fiction books today are ego trips for university lecturers who have no experience outside academia. The problem with engineering books and even books on Access, is that they only tell you how to do it one way. Generally non-fiction books don't tell you about the things that you shouldn’t do. Or of problems that will arise. That comes from experience and there would be no forums, or online help available. Not even a postal service. So hopefully the guys with the knowledge won’t have been lynched for their food store before they pass their experience on. It is my opinion that I don't think we'd be building steam engines in anything like a few years.

 

[Pat Hartman]

I only mention books because the people who came before us had only trial and error. So the survivors would be starting with lots of information even though it may have gaps. They would also have non-working models which could be examined.

I too fear that books are disappearing. Border's had the best technical book selection. Now, I don't think they are even in business any more. I am frequently disappointed when I buy technical books online.

 

[Cotswold]

An update from a UK newspaper today.

 

[Cotswold]

Whilst a Carrington or solar storm are expected to take out satellites, substations and Datacentres.
What is the likelihood of them causing battery operated vehicles to explode?

 

[GPGeorge]

I only mention books because the people who came before us had only trial and error. So the survivors would be starting with lots of information even though it may have gaps. They would also have non-working models which could be examined.

I too fear that books are disappearing. Border's had the best technical book selection. Now, I don't think they are even in business any more. I am frequently disappointed when I buy technical books online.

You can thank the AI engines and Google for that, along with the pirates who take the financial incentive out of writing and publishing technical books.

As an example of the latter, the last book I worked on with a co-author was published in 2013 or 2014. I forget exactly. The point is that after we had gone to press, but before the book actually hit the shelves, Ben and I happened to be talking about the problem of piracy. We decided to look. Yes, we found our book available as a PDF on some shady site even before the book was officially released. The audacity of the pirates is astounding.

But, that is a personal lament. The real, overwhelming issue is the fact that no one wants to buy and read a 1,000 page book anymore, not when Google -- and sites like this -- are so much more effective and totally free.

 

[Steve R.]

I too fear that books are disappearing. Border's had the best technical book selection. Now, I don't think they are even in business any more. I am frequently disappointed when I buy technical books online.

Quite true, but there is corresponding theme.

Out of Meme Magic: GameStop Announces Widespread Store Closures

Struggling video game retailer and notorious meme stock GameStop has revealed its intention to close a significant number of stores across the United States after shutting down 300 locations in the previous year. One analyst noted, "GameStop has virtually no chance of returning to profitability...

www.breitbart.com

One person, commenting on this article, made a very insightful comment: "Following in Blockbuster's footsteps. Technology, times and delivery methods have changed."

My observation, I used to window shop Gamestop quite often. They were like Radio Shake, everywhere. But, overtime, I noticed that the "good" games seemed to have disappeared from the shelves and migrated to being only available as an online purchase. (It appears that the ability to even buy a physical CD of Turbotax from a retail store is disappearing,) That also seems to be the case with technical books as they have also disappeared from store shelves. One subtle reason, certain programs have many versions, which makes it difficult for a retail outlet to carry them. A saving grace, if one can to call it that, is that the internet and sites like this one enable you to substitute the need to buy a book and also makes searching for an answer much more efficient.

 

[Pat Hartman]

But, that is a personal lament. The real, overwhelming issue is the fact that no one wants to buy and read a 1,000 page book anymore, not when Google -- and sites like this -- are so much more effective and totally free.

Most people don't realize what a minuscule price per "book" an author is paid. Unless your books are selling millions of copies, writing isn't the path to great wealth and even best selling technical books have limited distribution. George may have some sense of what his hourly wage was for the books he has contributed to but probably wouldn't want to tell us.

I am a reader. I also purchased technical books. I would spend hours in Borders perusing books and any book that solved a problem I had or gave me something I considered useful, I purchased because I wanted to encourage the author to continue doing research and writing.

The thing I like about books is that they are orderly. They have a table of contents that allows you to drill down into topics. They also have minimal indexes for at least important key words. This is actually what makes sites like this one so valuable. WE, the experts, can translate the vague, poorly worded questions into real world problems and give the posters the "words" to go forward with.

I would like to see someone develop web sites that can substitute for books because there really is a need for a book that has a table of contents so you can drill down to the topic you want to read about. We need overviews and we need details. I would pay to have access to such a website as long as the content was good and new content was being produced. This website could also be used to dispense previously published works provided the copyrights can be secured. The issue would be how to prevent people from stealing the content and reselling it. I think you ought to be able to print small sections, probably with a water mark or stuff in the margins indicating where it came from.

Then the question becomes, should the site be by subscription? Should it be technology silos so you are not buying access to all content but to a silo. Or should you be able to buy perpetual access to specific books? Lots to think about.

Going back to the author's piece of the pie, I read a lot of fiction. I read in many locations, I don't like using a kindle because I have to have it with me when I want to read and I don't want to carry it everywhere I go. Therefore, I keep books in the four most likely places I will read. My recliner, my office desk (lunch), my car(lunch, etc), the throne room. I take my car book into doctor's offices or other appointments. I use paperbacks because hard covers are heavy and too expensive and due to the length of time it might take me to read a book, the library doesn't quite work. But, I went into Barnes and Noble (the only remaining bookstore in town) and they had ZERO mass market paperbacks. I could buy paperbacks but they were the larger, more expensive format which is up to $15+ per book these days. Amazon still sells mass market but they no longer have old stuff available AND they charge the price printed on the label. BJ's does discount books and carries a few of my favorite authors so instead of $9.99, their prices range from $6.99-$8.50.

So, authors of the world, once the mass market paperback gets pulled as a format or priced higher than I am willing to pay for the convenience of a one-time read ( I do pass on books to others whenever I can though), I will be buying used or unsold hard covers and authors get NOTHING. So, I've written to a number of authors pointing this out to encourage them to pressure their publishers to stick with the cheaper format. I read enough different authors so that waiting a year to read a new book isn't a problem.