So, how about another example?
Well, again, software industry was maturing - but then the smartphone came along!!!
And again, huge doors opened up, as many business now wanted and could use some app software (for building inspections, for delivery, for taking on site pictures with quoting software - huge new things could be done with smartphones). Again, the key and critical concept here is a CHANGE in technology occurred!!!
It is this "change" that opened up the doors. So, those jumping into Access? With that GUI? Well, that was displacing those Green screen applications - along with many a business NOT YET having adopted computers + software.
But, keep in mind that a change in technology does not necessary have to occur to create more work for yourself, but a CHANGE in the technologies YOU use can also create that work!!!
So, desktop software is still relevant , but like that young lad dropping off a scrap paper with his phone number?
Well, those business ALREADY invested in their web sites.
Same goes for the windows software. Business ALREADY invested. That desktop software is JUST as important now as it was back when it was crated.
But, that investment has ALREADY occurred.
So, to find more desktop development work, you have to find a company that's not using desktop software.
(good luck finding that). When we started, most business did not have computers or software yet - now they do.
Or you have to find a new start up business - again, that' a super low rate of customer base to chase.
So, then, the concept here is to find what technologies that these business have not yet adopted.
While near all have adopted and have some web site (tends to be just some static brochure type of site), large amounts of business have not yet adopted customer facing web portals that interface their customers to all of that least 20+ years of software investments (which are internal facing).
So, there is much less desktop software work today, since most business have already made that investments, just like say 20 years ago, they invested to have someone build them some www site with some simple HTML markup....
However, these "plays" in our industry don't last long. What was holding back a lot of smaller business to build those customer web portals?
Cost - the cost of web development was too high, and tools were not mature enough - so, only larger business could afford such development costs.
Well, web development tools are vast improved today. And that thus opens up doors for developers and business that at one time spent money on internal software systems.
It's also a way to leverage existing Access work. Sooner or later, business will figure out how great a customer web portal is - and if you the Access developer can't offer that solution, then someone else will - and often that other company will ALSO offer to re-write most or significant parts of your application - and you thus not only can't you find new work , but you risk losing existing work!!!
It will be the same as when we Access developers came along and replaced green screen applications....
- As the supply of developers increases & AI; cost of developing applications with more modern languages more appropriate for web-use
Well, their are way too many developers right now - about 10x more then we need....I can explain this issue, but it's not due to AI......
The issue of web based as I pointed out is that technology can YIELD the big cherry cost savings - and further investments in their desktop software not going to benefit the company. it's not that one technology is more important, it's that they ALREADY have made the desktop investments over the last 20 years. So, investment dollars not flowing that way anymore because they don't need to!!!
Just like that business condo example, and web development? Well, there's no new web site work for those 60 business anymore (well new sites I mean). And they all probably invested in desktop software also.
So, very little work in web sites, and very little work in desktop software will exist. Not because the web or desktop is going away, but because they already made those investments....
But, most of those business will NOT have taken their internal desktop software investments, and started figuring out how to expose that software and investments to their customers (with that customer web portal).
So, buying a new payroll program? Not really going to change that business bottom line one bit, and they probably should just keep using their 25 year old FoxPro green screen DOS based system. --- I really mean this!!!
But, 9 out of 10 times, I can walk into that office, and get a signed contract for that payroll system....
How?
Well, you see, in most such companies, they have a controller or main accounting staff, and that person also thus tends to do some HR work.
So, in a given day, staff will phone up the accounting office for:
How much holiday pay do I have coming, or how and when can I take holidays?
Say, just 10 phone calls in one day, each 5 minutes long?
Well, that's 50 minutes per day - 10 days that's 500 minutes of expensive and limited accounting/controllers time right?
So, then offer to build that company a employee facing web site that interfaces to the account system. Now, employees can log in, see their pay, get their tax filing information. Schedule their holidays etc. All occurring without the expensive accounting/controllers time.
At least 1 hour per day you save that company......
And thus, what business owner would not grab your hand, not let you out the door ,since you about to build them a magic black box that will save the accounting 1 hour per day - the payback for the cost of such software is only months - not years. And after that, the magic black box of software is saving them money every day - for the next 20 years!!!!
Like I said, no business owner going to leave a pile of money sitting on a table. To NOT buy that staff portal software will cost the company MORE money then buying such software!!!!
Note once again, that Green screen accounting software can still be used - but by adopting DIFFERENT technology - web based, then you just created new work......
BTW?
Near every company I know today with more then about 40 employees? They are now all using such "employee" web based software for staff to schedule holidays, check holiday pay owing and tax info for filing - and it was a market I wanted to enter - but was too busy!!! Developers who got into this business segment are doing VERY well......
Well, actually you not wrong. But the issue was never that desktop software went away, but that such investments ALREADY have occurred. That desktop software is still there - it's just that the company now does not have to invest and spend money on that software - it works and does the job it should. So, additional investments will NOT save the company money anymore, but investing say in some customer web portal? That can save them boatloads of money.
Remember, software has to cost LESS then the benefits company receives.
In fact, if by me hiring you, and I can make $8 per month by hiring you? Why then I will hire a million such people like you, and thus I will be making 8 million dollars per month.....
So, just like that pile of money sitting on the corner with a sign on top saying "help yourself - grab some money"?
it's the same when buying software or even hiring someone. If the cost of that software or employee is LESS then the benefits the company receives, then they will buy software or hire you.
of course, if the cost of the software is MORE then the benefits or the cost of that employee is MORE then what they receive for hiring that person? Well, they will fast go out of business!!!!
So, work in our industry is based on finding software investments that produce MORE benefits then the cost of that software.
Desktop is not dying, it's just that investments in more desktop software will not translate into savings, and thus the dollars are not going to flow in that direction. And the money not flowing into those 5 days HTML graduates that took some course at the fly by night tech school down the street to get into the web site creating boom. (because that young lad already picked up those companies 20 years ago!!!!).
R
Albert