Euromillions lottery and luck

[The_Doc_Man]

I used to work for a slot machine manufacturer. They are not "rigged", at least not the legal ones. They are heavily regulated and the software checked closely. They control the payout with math.

I wonder about that for the modern fully electronic slots that tie into a casino's "big prize" - whatever it is. And there are cases where people have "won" a big prize only to lose it to a "machine malfunction." When the machine is fully electronic I have trouble imagining that it would have a "spin error" though that is often the excuse for a non-payout.

As to the big USA lotteries, the odds against winning are about 350 million to one against (rounded off). So I wait until the payout is bigger than 350 million, to make the return reward proportional to the cost of a ticket. Of course, being that selective means I rarely play because I know how bad the odds are. But those big-ticket cash-out prizes become seriously tempting when they get high enough. So ... I indulge just a little.

 

[Space Cowboy]

I remember calculating the odds on the UK lottery a year or so after it started, the odds back the were approx 28 million to 1 by my calculations. I didn't have another go after that eye opener. You are far more likely to get cancer than win the lottery, 50/50.

 

[moke123]

What are the odds of knowing a lottery winner. I know 3 people who've won $1,000,000 + prizes.
One of them hit $1,000,000 twice.

 

[ColinEssex]

Why is it that more people buy lottery tickets when the prize jackpot is tens of millions? Its as if the routine jackpot of (say) one or two million isn't worth the effort of getting a ticket.
If someone offered you one million pounds (or dollars) would you decline it as not being worth it?
Col

 

[Cotswold]

I've seen roulette tables with displays showing the last x spins, red vs black %, etc. Would they do that if it helped people beat them? I suspect they do it because it will encourage people to bet who think they see a pattern.

Knowing the totals of reds, or blacks is quite pointless, telling you nothing whatsoever.
The objective is to con those with little knowledge of maths and probability into betting.
Those who put their belief in luck.......whatever that is. In the same way that 99.9999%
of the punters imagine they can use family birthdays, their imaged lucky numbers,
or numbers from some flash of inspiration to pick the next number the ball drops into.
They are encouraged to think this.
For the same reason lottery winners are paraded through the media. Look how easy it is,
even this moron won without even trying.

In the same way, adverts for alcohol always show small happy groups of people in a sunny,
and/or pleasant place enjoying the booze. (drinking is always associated with happiness).
The gambling industry wants you to believe you can pick a number and the booze industry
wants you to believe that happiness will result by drinking their product. Both are successful,
resulting in super-normal profits. Often those testing the theories, somewhat less so.

On gambling, I haven't for maybe 40 years. Wining is far to time consuming and stressful. You
need to be young to win. Then there is the boredom of course. Apart from the fact that I am
retired, so far too busy all of the day, every day. I could do with another 40 years actually.

 

[AccessBlaster]

The house edge in American roulette is due to the presence of the green slots (0 and 00), which reduces the expected return on all bets below their true odds.

Red: Approximately 47.37%
Black: Approximately 47.37%
Green: Approximately 5.26%

I do like to play the green slots, especially with the electronic versions

 

[CJ_London]

On our honeymoon many years ago we were cruising the Caribbean. The ship has a casino with the 00 roulette table and on the first night we decided to try our luck with $20 each. I spread my bets around a bit, my wife put the whole $20 on 00, and lost. Wouldn’t play again. Over the two weeks I built my little pot up to a bit over $100.

on the last night my wife decided to give it another go. I gave her $20 and she did the same thing, put it on 00

And won

It just about paid our bar bill and various other expenses incurred on board

I still play occasionally, but treat the $20 as an expense for being entertained for an hour or so. Sometimes I come out ahead, sometimes with less than $20 but once it’s gone, it’s gone.

 

[Space Cowboy]

Why is it that more people buy lottery tickets when the prize jackpot is tens of millions? Its as if the routine jackpot of (say) one or two million isn't worth the effort of getting a ticket.
If someone offered you one million pounds (or dollars) would you decline it as not being worth it?
Col

Because the odds of selecting the correct numbers is still the same.
Therefore, the higher the "prize" the more projected " value" you are getting for your pound. Some people just cant resist a bargain.

 

[Space Cowboy]

Frequently I attend different functions where a bottle of whisky is auctioned off after dinner. People tend to spend about a fiver.
Sometimes there maybe another donated prize or two. Two whisky or a whisky and a couple of bottles of wine as separate prizes, in these situations I buy more tickets though everyone else seems to stick to their fiver.

 

[Pat Hartman]

I used to actually like playing Blackjack but again, there are "rules" you need to follow such as always split Aces and Eights, and for aces, double down on the split. But once they got rid of all the cheap ($5) tables, it became not fun because there was alway too much money on the table. With gambling, you have to plan on losing (you can make a living playing live poker but that's a different game). If you are a counter, you can up your odds at Blackjack but I don't play enough to ever get good at it. However, if I am at a Bridge tournament being held in a casino and there are bridge players at the table, I decide if they are counting and if I think they are, I bet what they bet. They change their bet depending on the state of the deck and with a 6 deck shoe, you probably only have a few hands to capitalize on that knowledge before the dealer shuffles.. So, you just decide what you're willing to spend to sit and play a game for a couple of hours.

 

[Cotswold]

Frequently I attend different functions where a bottle of whisky is auctioned off after dinner. People tend to spend about a fiver.
Sometimes there maybe another donated prize or two. Two whisky or a whisky and a couple of bottles of wine as separate prizes, in these situations I buy more tickets though everyone else seems to stick to their fiver.

In this type of situation where tickets are purchased and the counterfoil placed in a barrel or a bin,
then mixed up and picked out by some official. Make sure you buy your tickets as near to the draw
time as possible, later the better.

If it is in aid of whatever charity, resist buying tickets weeks, or days before when they pester you
to buy them. Later the better and the more prizes you will win. Also, as you say SpaceCowboy,
buying a little extra also helps, particularly near draw time. BUT don't tell anyone else who is buying
tickets, ever! Otherwise you'll kill the job.

 

[ColinEssex]

My Dad always used to say, 'whatever you bet on, if you can't afford to lose, walk away'.
Col

 

[moke123]

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Why is it that more people buy lottery tickets when the prize jackpot is tens of millions?

It's a subtle thing relating to "expectation value" vs. actual odds. When the actual odds are, say, 300 million to 1 against winning but the prize is greater than 300 million (pick your favorite currency here), then there is the (false) perception that the odds are slanted your way. Of course, the odds are the same no matter the prize - but it is a perception thing.

When I'm in the mood, I'll even play a ticket or two for the cases where the return is a decent fraction of a billion dollars. Yeah, I know... a sucker's bet. But if I couldn't afford it, I wouldn't bet it.

 

[pbaldy]

View attachment 114992

So how much was the prize (we don't have a lottery here)? Was it a single $100 or are all the matched numbers cumulative, so $1,000? Congrats either way!

 

[moke123]

That one's a $1000. I also hit three $100 tickets and a $50 at the same time.
I cashed it on the app on my phone and it's already in my bank account. Used to have to drive an hour to a lottery office to cash big wins.

No state Lottery? They probably don't want to compete with the casinos. My State has a Keno game which you can play in bars so the casinos can't have Keno so they don't compete with the state.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

I once gambled a little bit while on a cruise. Playing "Caribbean Poker" I hit four sixes and ended up paying for about half the cruise. Would have been a LOT more, but the dealer's hand wasn't playable under Caribbean Poker rules and that meant I got a 2nd-tier prize. But it DID pay for all of the drinks and some gift-shop items.

 

[pbaldy]

No state Lottery? They probably don't want to compete with the casinos

I'm quite sure you're correct. Casinos are likely why we don't have a state income tax though.