Coronavirus - are we all doomed? (1 Viewer)

I am a little concerned because the Coronavirus has hit Crowborough, the town where I live!!

There was a guy who checked himself into Brighton hospital with the disease. But he works for a company called Servomex that is based in Crowborough. See the link below. As I type this, I am noticing a number of people in the cafe coughing. This could be the start of a pandemic and I'm at the epicentre! 😩

www.dailymail.co.uk

UK officials hunt for anyone who time with coronavirus businessman

The man, who returned from Singapore by plane last week, took himself to A&E at the Royal Sussex in Brighton on Sunday before he was transferred to Guy's Hospital in London (pictured).
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

But officials have repeatedly refused to give away any more details about the man, who is thought to be in his 40s or 50s, and they have also not released details of which flight he arrived on.
Click to expand...
Doesn't that sound a bit like China? What about some transparency from the British authorities? Does he frequent the local Costa coffee shop in Crowborough when he goes to work? Should I order my medium cappuccino extra hot whole milk + pain au raisin while wearing a bio-warfare suit?
 
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Just read this: https://crowboroughlife.com/coronovirus-servomex-crowborough/

TLDR: "Around 90 Servomex employees were at the conference in Singapore."

Eek! I hope none of them are back at their headquarters in Crowborough. There was a man in my local grocery store today who sneezed and I instantly wondered if he was a super-carrier!
 
I noticed a back-page item in our newspaper that North Korea has been essentially silent on this issue. Speculation, however, runs rampant regarding the chance that they have it and don't want the world to know it.
 
I would have thought they were isolated and so protected from the contagion. Unless they have a lot of their Chinese neighbours popping over for a holiday in a stark hotel.
 
Makes me angry...a flight from Wuhan that rescued a planeload of Brits had landed, and coached them to an isolated area for quarantining for 14 days. But one of them tried to escape. The idiot! Putting everybody else at risk. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ronavirus-imminent-threat-British-public.html

Also, the coach driver who ferried them to the quarantine zone had no protective gear on at all. Not even a face mask! They told him to stay at home for 14 days. Why is it that this planeload of Brits from Wuhan get isolated, yet the coach driver gets told to just stay at home with a cup of tea. Very lax if you ask me. I would put him in a concrete bunker for a month!
 
So...I was scheduled to travel back to the US in early March. However, there has been a report of 2 cases of the virus in lower Italy this week. Almost ALL countries that border the Med, including Morocco (my connection) will quarantine any travelers from Italy.

And the hits just keep on coming...
 
I've heard that Italy has 400+ cases now.
 
We have a family in quarantine that were in China .
There is also a report of a Ca. Man having caught it in the wild. He did not travel anywhere.
 
Ok, I am going to make a prediction (based on flimsy data). And this is very frightening indeed. By my estimates, we could have quarter of a million deaths in England in 3 months time from the coronavirus. That is half of the death toll of World War 2! By contrast, the average death count per year for flu in England is 17K. So, coronavirus is 20 times more deadly. I am assuming a 1% death rate of those infected.

Today, we had 12 more cases reported of coronavirus in England, taking the count to 51. My guesstimates is a doubling of the number of cases every 4 days. That means in a month, there could be 3,000 cases per day in England, a month after that half a million per day per day. One month later, 50M per day! The projections are alarming.

My growth-rate projections are based on looking at some of the stats, but they are nowhere near concrete. But I have this piece of advice for everybody:

Stockpile now!
 
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Let me add, if anyone thinks I am being alarmist, check out this graph from Italy:

italy-corona-1024x662.png


The number of cases over there are doubling every 2 to 3 days, so I am being more conservative in my guesstimates than what is happening over there. So get ahead of the curve. When people catch on, there will be panic buying. Instead, panic now while stocks last!
 
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While I do not dispute the chart of deaths, my question is whether corona virus is being underreported. When someone gets a really mild cold or a really mild flu, it COULD be corona but not reported as such - because they won't bother to have it tested and confirmed. So the death rate as a percentage might be lower because the divisor (representing total cases) might be low.
 
That is a very good point doc, and I agree. Many people will pass it off as just a normal bug. Would that affect my projections in any way?
 
Jon, if the cases are under-reported, the "average deaths per case" means the divisor is smaller than it needs to be. Which means that the average is LARGER than it should be.
 
I am trying to get my head around the implications. Let's say only 10% of cases get reported. In the Italian example, the chart growth rate is still what it is. It shows the number of deaths per reported cases. Regarding the math, does having a large number of unreported cases actually slow down the chart shown already? My initial feelings are that it doesn't, but I am open to being proven wrong here as I am going by gut intuition rather than mathematical fact.
 
Hate to break it to you but ... 6/706 is less than 1%. Something like about 0.8% (rounded).
 
Today's stats say there is a 3.2% death rate, but it appears higher because, like The Doc says, many people with mild symptoms don't report it.
 
From the chart I posted about Italy, it was 917 cases of coronarivus 5 days ago. It is now 2,500 today. That is similar to my doubling every 4 days prediction.

Lets play with some maths:

Today, 4th of March: 2,500
8th: 5,000
12th: 10,000
16th: 20,000
20th: 40,000
24th: 80,000
28th: 160,000
1st April: 320,000

One month after that? 41M
Click to expand...
The above is from my post in another thread, but it is relevant here so I have duplicated it.
 
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