Trump Administration Predictions

[AccessBlaster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1908891192596832597

 

[RogerCooper]

In this limited sense, I will agree. However, that statement glosses over the real problem. The unelected bureaucrats were MAKING NEW RULES while running the country because Congress has de facto abdicated their role in law- and rule-making. The repeal of the Chevron Deference Doctrine was an important, even necessary, first step to stopping the violation of "Separation of Powers" - but the next step requires Congress to rise to the challenge and not get bogged down in distractions. As long as virulent forms of TDS remain, that won't happen.

I am glad to see that you support the separation of powers. The legislative branch makes the laws, the judicial branch interprets the laws and the executive branch executes the laws. A conservative legal group has sued to overturn Trump's unconstitutional arrogation of law-making power. You can check out the details at https://nclalegal.org/press_release...gency-tariffs-that-congress-never-authorized/ and make a contribution.

 

[Mike Krailo]

That was one of the biggest short squeezes I have ever seen in the market. They were buying back their positions at market prices and got demolished on positive tariff news. There will likely be some re-testing of the lows, but that was a killer move in the market.

 

[RogerCooper]

That was one of the biggest short squeezes I have ever seen in the market. They were buying back their positions at market prices and got demolished on positive tariff news. There will likely be some re-testing of the lows, but that was a killer move in the market.

What are you talking about? In a short squeeze, the price of a stock goes up as the short-sellers need to cover their positions. Stocks have been gone down substantially. Short-selling can have a significant effect on an individual stock, but it does not have a significant effect on the market overall.

 

[Mike Krailo]

What are you talking about? In a short squeeze, the price of a stock goes up as the short-sellers need to cover their positions. Stocks have been gone down substantially. Short-selling can have a significant effect on an individual stock, but it does not have a significant effect on the market overall.

Guess you never traded the futures before. SPX, NASDQ (NQ's), and the Dow all had a tremedous amount of short interest in it. This is the first of many wild moves that surely will happen if we go back down again. Could be a dead cat bounce, but I think it happened off of positive tariff news. I like the NQ's but the benchmark is the SPX.

 

[RogerCooper]

Guess you never traded the futures before. SPX, NASDQ (NQ's), and the Dow all had a tremedous amount of short interest in it. This is the first of many wild moves that surely will happen if we go back down again. Could be a dead cat bounce, but I think it happened off of positive tariff news. I like the NQ's but the benchmark is the SPX.

I have you put your money on a bet that tariff increases will cause the market to go up? I pulled my 401K out immediately, limiting my losses.

Do you have any evidence that the losses were driven by short-sellers?

 

[Mike Krailo]

Do you have any evidence that the losses were driven by short-sellers?

Lot's of experience trading. The VIX is at very high levels, so the market moves can be dramatic. The short sellers at least in the futures market that got short on day one and two last week are safe at the moment. The one's that are playing todays game or tightened up their stops got the market moving rapidly in the other direction when some positive news came out. Yes, it could be new buyers like me, but there were way more short sellers than buyers today (it's called old business from Friday). They contributed greatly to the bounce that occurred in the first hour of trade today. The really serious shorts will attempt to drive the market down multiple times, until they cannot anymore. Then all that old business will get demolished just like it almost always does. If they are correct in their assessment, then we end at the lows or lower.

Baring any bad news, I think we end up pretty big on the day. What happens tomorrow, I have no idea.

 

[RogerCooper]

What was the positive news?

 

[Mike Krailo]

In a nut shell, Trump is making deals with many countries that are win/win deals. That's something the shorts don't want to hear. They would rather everything be bleak and damaging to the country. The market doesn't lie though. On Thursday last week, the bad news was all about the uncertainty of the new tariffs (very true). As that uncertainty begins to wane, the market will have already made it's move back up. The market doesn't lie.

Those that bet against this country, can and do make lot's of money when they are right. But when they are wrong, it creates the very definition of short squeeze and it happens rather quickly. I'm not saying the down side action is over. I honestly thought we would reach the long term trend line in the SPX, but we didn't get there and the bounce happened well before that level. I hate when that happens.

Here is the S&P 500 monthly. We are only 7 days into the month, but it could potentially never get to the line. Notice how large this months candle is. Bigger than all the rest.

I like NKE stock as a longer term buy and hold. It's down now around 70% and this looks like a good opportunity to me at least for a run to the trendline of ~80. This stock has taken a beating and this company isn't going away anytime soon.

I'm also big on GOLD coming into another buying area as I think it has much more upside.

 

[RogerCooper]

In a nut shell, Trump is making deals with many countries that are win/win deals. That's something the shorts don't want to hear. They would rather everything be bleak and damaging to the country. The market doesn't lie though. On Thursday last week, the bad news was all about the uncertainty of the new tariffs (very true). As that uncertainty begins to wane, the market will have already made it's move back up. The market doesn't lie.

Those that bet against this country, can and do make lot's of money when they are right. But when they are wrong, it creates the very definition of short squeeze and it happens rather quickly. I'm not saying the down side action is over. I honestly thought we would reach the long term trend line in the SPX, but we didn't get there and the bounce happened well before that level. I hate when that happens.

Here is the S&P 500 monthly. We are only 7 days into the month, but it could potentially never get to the line. Notice how large this months candle is. Bigger than all the rest.
View attachment 119310

I like NKE stock as a longer term buy and hold. It's down now around 70% and this looks like a good opportunity to me at least for a run to the trendline of ~80. This stock has taken a beating and this company isn't going away anytime soon.

I'm also big on GOLD coming into another buying area as I think it has much more upside.

Gold is going up because of uncertainty about the value of the dollar amidst Trump's disruptive trade policies.

Have you seen of any of these win/win deals? An agreement to set tariffs to 0 would be a win/win but would also contradict what Trump said he was trying to achieve.

What are Nike's Price/Revenue and Price/Earnings ratios? And how does your graph show Nike is down 70%. It look like 20% of the peak to me.

 

[Mike Krailo]

Gold is going up because of uncertainty about the value of the dollar amidst Trump's disruptive trade policies.

That's your opinion, but gold is heavily manipulated until the overall global hoarding begins. Then it will explode along with silver. I hope it doesn't, but I'm going to be positioned for it just in case. There is no more kicking the can on our deficit, the math will not allow for it any longer.

What are Nike's Price/Revenue and Price/Earnings ratios? And how does your graph show Nike is down 70%. It look like 20% of the peak to me.

You must look at the long term monthly chart for a better look at everything. If you just look at 50% of the high in NKE of 179.10 we get a price of 89.55 which is considerably higher than where it is at now. If you do the math on the monthly chart, the current low divided by the high is 53.44 / 179.10 = 0.2983807928531547. Now subtract 1 to get the percentage difference and you get -0.7016192071468453 which is -70% from high to low. You do your own homework on it.

 

[Steve R.]

Gold is going up because of uncertainty about the value of the dollar amidst Trump's disruptive trade policies.

Please provide evidence to the effect that your statement is somehow valid.
Since the price of gold has been rising for years, the "obvious" correlation is inflation, which consistently deflates the value of the $$$$$.
PS: The recent upward spike in the price of gold preceded any of Trump's supposed "disruptive trade policies".

GOLDPRICE.ORG -

GOLDPRICE.ORG - The No. 1 gold price site for

goldprice.org

 

[Mike Krailo]

Please provide evidence to the effect that your statement is somehow valid.
Since the price of gold has been rising for years, the "obvious" correlation is inflation, which consistently deflates the value of the $$$$$.

What is not obvious, but should be, is the fact that we cannot sustain our current deficit spending and survive the parabolic increase in interest owed on our debt. Trump will have to play a perfect hand of economy poker. Elon pointed that out before he got started with his current effort to try and cut FWA in the government, but that is a small part of what needs to be done to get out of the predicament we find ourselves in now. Let's see how fast the interest on the debt climbs in the next several years. The addition of the DOGE clock is nice, but not nice enough. I will remain bullish on Gold until I see a reversal in the trend in our ever increasing debt. 36.7 Trillion is where we are at now. Back in July 2024 it was at 34.9 Trillion, so in less than one year it has grown almost 2 Trillion!!! Every year it grows at a faster pace with more debt. This won't end well.

 

[Steve R.]

What is not obvious, but should be, is the fact that we cannot sustain our current deficit spending ...

The politicians refuse avoid cutting federal government spending, since they don't want to make the hard decisions that they were elected to do. Time for the US House of Representatives to impose some austerity. It will be painful.

DOGE has also exposed that some of this spending was to fund Democratic party front organizations operating under the moniker of NGOs. Seems that the Republicans, were asleep at recognizing this corruption. Republicans controlled the budgetary process for the last two year, they failed to prevent this abuse.

 

[AccessBlaster]

I just like seeing the anarchist rooting for capitalism. It went from occupy wall street to keep your hands off wall street, Haha.

 

[Steve R.]

Democrats telling the public "to take a hike" and to keep their hands off of the Democrats corrupt spending.