Corona status

[Pat Hartman]

How are you all doing? Are you or friends/family infected? We seem to have recently gotten some hot spots in NYC and surrounding counties as well as New Jersey. New Orleans should have probably cancelled Mardi Gras. The Navy has sent medical ships to LA and NYC. The Army Corps of Engineering is building temporary hospitals in convention centers, vacant buildings, and hotels in NY, LA, and New Orleans and is contemplating doing something in Chicago. Then we have all the stupid college kids who went somewhere on Spring Break and since they couldn't go back to school, they went home to Mom and Dad and probably infected them.

The statistics being reported are still misleading. We are testing a lot more people every day but those numbers aren't being reflected in the published number of infected so we are not yet seeing the dramatic drop in death percentage that we should. They're still reporting 2,000 deaths and 100,000 infected but the 100,000 number is only people who have presented with symptoms and doesn't include anyone why had mild symptoms and didn't report or who recently got tested and was positive. For any of you who have worked with statistics, they are simply the ratio of two numbers and if you pick misleading numbers, you control the result so I'm pretty sure that the death percentage is still artificially high and we'll see something closer to the annual flu rather than Swine Flu or Ebola which both had scary high death rates.

I'm in Fairfield County in Connecticut. I used to play bridge twice a week in Westport but luckily the people at the infamous birthday party don't seem to have been bridge players so I haven't heard that any of my friends are infected. Just sitting around playing bridge online along with 40,000 other people. Luckily in February one of my old clients called with a three month job so I'm not totally bored. He got me out of retirement at just the right time. I'm staying away from my daughter and granddaughters. One of the granddaughters has a new love and he lives in Brooklyn and since she is visiting him, she can't visit me. His father is a judge here in CT and the judge was just told that someone who works in the courthouse tested positive but they won't tell him who. They will only tell him that he was not exposed. How they know that for a fact is unknown.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Thanks for asking. My wife and I are doing fine. Since I retired, we don't go out that much any more anyway, so we aren't doing TOO badly on the "social distancing" stuff. We take walks (which are allowed in the Louisiana version of the emergency order.) After all, we can see anyone coming closer than 10 feet so that's not an issue.

I would like to comment on the "Mardi Gras" issue. It has come up before. Mayor Cantrell went on national TV for this one. If the city had been informed of an incipient wave, much less epidemic or pandemic, she would have closed down Mardi Gras in a heartbeat. But Mardi Gras was over for a couple of weeks before anyone even mentioned epidemics. The news of corona virus didn't make it to the public in time for anyone to do anything about it, and in the absence of any warning, the greater New Orleans area wasn't about to shut down a money-making tourist attraction. We are not always portrayed as being that bright, but if you tell us there is a problem, some of us actually listen!

At the moment, New Orleans is cleaning (disinfecting) the Morial Convention Center, which has plenty of square feet that aren't being used at all right now. They have started to put together an isolation hospital for the folks who have corona virus but whose symptoms do NOT require ventilators. They have 500 beds coming and another 500 are pending approvals through FEMA or some other agency.

Right now, for reasons not fully understood, our biggest infectious clusters are in nursing homes. I could GUESS that it was due to folks taking their loved ones out of the home for a parade just to give the old folks some fun, and when they got back, they brought in corona. As of Sunday, 3/29/2020, we have eleven such nursing homes that are identified as "clusters."

I have a nephew in greater Biloxi, Mississippi who is a certified respiratory therapist. My wife's collector's club has a member who is also a certified respiratory therapist. They both tell us that this is one of those diseases that, when it is mild, acts like a long-lasting case of the flu - but when it isn't so mild, it is deadly-severe and much worse than the "ordinary" flu.

I tend to agree with you on the percentages. We in Louisiana are working to try to get people tested but apparently there can be corona "victims" who show no symptoms at all and thus never even consider getting tested. How are you going to base solid statistics on something when the divisor is uncertain? We know how many bodies there are, that's easy. (Go to the coffins, count toes, divide by 10.) But we have no way to be sure how many were exposed and had no symptoms at all.

 

[moke123]

I'm not far from you Pat. About an hour or so north off route 8. Our numbers have been steadily rising. Officially at 151 but I'm sure its way under reported. 5 local deaths, one being my daughters friends grandmother. Reports today of 14 residents of a nursing home tested positive with one death. Thats not a good situation.

The only good news is I finished Netflix. I hope the next stimulus package includes money for them to get new content.

 

[vba_php]

I hope the next stimulus package includes money for them to get new content.

the last thing I heard, which was years ago, was that Netflix was using chaos math theory to try and GUESS what you wanted to watch next. that's pretty sad.

 

[deletedT]

The only good news is I finished Netflix.

What do you mean by that? You watched all the movies?

 

[deletedT]

It's very sad to see US reports more than 140000 infections.
We had a news that Spain has started to remove live-support equipment for elders (over 65 years old) and use them for the younger patients.
We (Japan) had a growth of infections by 200% during the last 3 days (64 reported infection per day)

I've got a feeling it's the end of line for man kind, just like a lot of movies I've watched. I'm asking myself "Do really we survive?"
We hadn't a good news for the past few weeks, only infection and death. No sign of any improvement in a cure. And the stress of anxiety for tomorrow on my shoulders feels so heavy.

 

[Minty]

Thanks for asking Pat.
WIth regard to the stats, in the UK they are only testing suspected cases that make it to a hospital unless you are a frontline responder / Prime minister(important to the process).

Therefore I suspect our official figures;

As of 9am on 29 March 2020, a total of 127,737 people have been tested, of which 108,215 were confirmed negative and 19,522 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 28 March 2020, 1,228 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.

Are probably miles out. I suspect 100,000's have possibly had it already or are at home self-isolating.
My wife works for a major supplier to the NHS, and they are ramping up big time for 10's of thousands of bed cases. Quite scary.

 

[Pat Hartman]

President Trump has gotten a couple of manufacturers to retool and build ventilators here in the US. Hopefully by the time they get into full production, we only have to put them into storage. I think Trump is planning on sending some of them to other countries. You shouldn't have to be taking less valuable people off of ventilators in order to save more valuable people. That is horrible. Hope it's just a rumor from the purveyors of fake news. A number of engineers have put together ventilators out of scraps. They also published methods where one ventilator can be used for two people at once. Apparently, it's a fairly simple device.

If the senior living and nursing homes and hospitals in your area are not completely shut down to visitors, they should be. My mother-in-law' home started restricting visitors over a month ago but they completely stopped visitors about two weeks ago. They set up a phone next to a window so the residents can talk to people who stay out on the porch.

Nancy Pelosi said today that she wants an investigation into Trump's handling of this crisis. That'll be productive. It's not like the man has nothing to do but respond to made up charges from the media and the Democrats. Probably as productive as the Dems spending January and February embroiled in their failed impeachment attempt rather than making sure the CDC and FDA and FEMA were all preparing for the virus which everyone knew was coming at some point. They all lost no time in January calling Trump a racist for shutting down flights from some areas in China. And then starting a lawsuit to interfere with Trump's ban on flights from certain areas in Europe because anything Trump does is simply wrong and you are evil if you don't agree.

 

[Pat Hartman]

Hi Moke,
I occasionally get calls for developers who the client wants to actually show up on site from time to time and you might be close enough for some of them. If you are interested, please send a PM with your email so we can connect. Did you ever attend any of the Access User group's meetings in Farmington?
Pat

 

[pbaldy]

Thanks Pat, we're doing well, no illness in anybody close to us...so far. Last week we drove a few hours to visit one of our daughters. She and her husband are both USAF officers, and the base childcare facility shut down a couple of weeks ago. We came to help them with their 2 toddlers, as it's pretty tough to juggle their demanding jobs and suddenly-stay-at-home toddlers.

 

[moke123]

Thanks Pat but my real job usually keeps me close to home. Except now I just get to stay home and get paid

Did you ever attend any of the Access User group's meetings in Farmington?

Wasn't aware there were any. Let me know if there are any in the future.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

@Tera:

I've got a feeling it's the end of line for man kind, just like a lot of movies I've watched. I'm asking myself "Do really we survive?"

I don't think it is quite as bad as you stated. I can tell that you are "down" right now about this. But remember that in the USA with approximately 125K cases that our population is over 300M. Let's say that we reach 300K cases at peak. That is 300K/300M = 0.1% of the population. The death rate is high, but still typically running at <5% of cases. So... a mortality rate of less than 5% of 300K = less than 15K out of 300M - which is 0.005% of the population. Somehow I think Man will survive.

Look at it for the more LIKELY outcome. Because of the manufacturers who have switched to creation of masks and respirators, the supply of condoms is running low. (Not kidding!) When this crisis is over, our population will probably INCREASE because, let's face it. If you are home with the family for an extended period, what are you going to do? How many board games or card games can you play before you get bored? Are you going to let a little thing like "no condoms" stop you from playing the odds one more time?

 

[Pat Hartman]

Speaking of condoms wasn't there a surge in births 9 months after the big power outage we had in the Northeast 20 years ago? I think there was another one in the early 70's when New England shut down and sheltered in place due to a blizzard. I took one of my people home from work and kept him for 3 days. My father-in-law spent 3 days in a hotel and was lucky to not have to share a room.

In the press conference this afternoon, Trump said they had the capacity to test 100,000 people per day. I'm not sure how they will keep up with the reporting though since a lot of these will be immediate tests performed at doctor's offices.

 

[MajP]

If you thought it was hard to find Toilet Paper just wait. Everyone is stuck inside with nothing to do, and now

Global condom shortage looms as coronavirus shuts down production

World’s biggest producer says lockdown has already caused shortfall of 100m condoms

www.theguardian.com

 

[moke123]

Speaking of condoms wasn't there a surge in births 9 months after the big power outage we had in the Northeast 20 years ago?

This batch will be called "Zoomers" after the now popular work from home video conference app.

 

[AccessBlaster]

It's very sad to see US reports more than 140000 infections.
We had a news that Spain has started to remove live-support equipment for elders (over 65 years old) and use them for the younger patients.
We (Japan) had a growth of infections by 200% during the last 3 days (64 reported infection per day)

I've got a feeling it's the end of line for man kind, just like a lot of movies I've watched. I'm asking myself "Do really we survive?"
We hadn't a good news for the past few weeks, only infection and death. No sign of any improvement in a cure. And the stress of anxiety for tomorrow on my shoulders feels so heavy.

I hope the world community can come together and start working on a solution, hang in there Tera.

 

[Deleted member 147267]

We hadn't a good news for the past few weeks, only infection and death. No sign of any improvement in a cure.

These things take time. Follow all the guidelines from authoritative sources and hang in there. It helps to have something to do other than tune into the never ending rehash on the news. You know what they say - every cloud has a silver lining. Easy for me to say, but you have to look for it.

 

[arnelgp]

I meant no offence to the victims on this.
but still we are lucky the virus came from china and not
from some Umbrella Corp...

 

[Minty]

@The_Doc_Man - https://www.google.com/covid19-map/ Your numbers seem to be about right, however where there have been higher levels of infection (Spain, Italy and probably more accurate reporting) the death rate is nearer 10% of confirmed cases.

I guess until this has been out there for another 3-4 weeks we won't really know.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Minty, the odds are not comfortable for confirmed cases but we keep on hearing that it is a hit-or-miss type of thing. New Orleans has thousands of confirmed cases in a metropolitan area of over 400,000, and the death rate is still less than 10% for us. Yes, it is bad if you get it, which is why my wife and I have limited our shopping trips to have social distancing. (Well..., that and the stores other than groceries and pharmacies are closed.) But my point is that I cannot obsess about such things and still maintain any shreds of sanity. Of course, there are those who would question whether I still HAVE any shreds of sanity, but to quote Patrick Swayze in Road House, "opinions differ."