Coronavirus - are we all doomed?

[vba_php]

a dumb user asking the wrong question.

oh really, richard? then how to you explain FOUR chinese people in a very short time?? and for some reason, they now do not show up on my "whos viewed you" page. interesting stuff....hmmmm. they appeared just 2 hours ago.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Ah, Adam ... Paranoia seems to be one of your strong suits.

But on another topic, that is actually related to the thread title:

We have been stocking up on things because Louisiana will probably in the next several days have a "self-isolation" order. So I've been going to various grocery stores including our favorite local chain and Wal Mart's grocery area. You can't find a lot of things. I remember seeing pictures of Russian markets before the collapse of the USSR as a political entity. The shelves in some aisles are just bare. Totally bare. It is more than a little bit depressing to see it that bad. We can't get toilet paper. Certain specific canned vegetables are out of stock. Bleach is impossible to find. I had to hit three stores before I found boxed cereal such as we like to use. Other things are in reduced supply but still available provided you are willing to work with nearly empty shelves. This is very depressing.

It isn't that we will starve. We have food. We have some supplies. But we can't get ordinary things that perhaps we have taken for granted. I will be glad to see this issue of supply/demand imbalance to level out.

 

[Jon]

I've been having arguments with a friend of mine from Florida. I just cannot understand why he is thinking the way he does. He keeps saying I am so biased and he doesn't understand why I am taking the view that I am. My prediction is that in 3 to 4 days the US will reach 25K cases and that in a couple of weeks, they are likely to exceed 80K cases, perhaps 100K+ cases. (I actually think more like 120K cases, because for me that is where the math points. But emotionally, it feels too large.) Of course, errors can be wide because when you double something every few days then it makes a big difference.

He thinks the US will top out at 25k - 30K cases. So, we have noted our projections down. He keeps saying that unless the US are not telling the citizens something, it won't go higher than 30K. i.e. he is giving himself a get out clause.

What are your projections for the US?

 

[vba_php]

What are your projections for the US?

jon, I'm not addressing your post, but why the he$$ haven't you sent me a PM back about your server question I asked you!?

 

[CJ_London]

look on the bright side, with the reductions being made to public transport, the chances of being run over by a bus are much reduced

 

[NauticalGent]

Found this...

 

[Jon]

I use that site to get my data too. If you click on the country, you get country specific graphs.

 

[Jon]

What I don't understand is why governments around the world are not better prepared for a pandemic of this magnitude, despite knowing it was not a case of if but when. The ability to convert one ventilator into potentially nine should have been part of contingency plans. It is just such short-term thinking.

Hospital turns its one ventilator into nine with some DIY mechanics

Dr Alain Gauthier, , an anesthetist at the Perth and Smiths Falls District Hospital in Ontario, Canada, learned how to rig the ventilator by watching YouTube videos created by two Detroit doctors.

www.dailymail.co.uk

The US for example spends $600 billion dollars a year (I think?) on military, yet how much are they spending on protection from a pandemic?

In my view, they should have been stockpiling face masks and other protective clothing, having a strategy for converting existing ventilators like shown in that link, and have more defined procedures for dealing with an outbreak. It just seems all so chaotic.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

What I don't understand is why governments around the world are not better prepared for a pandemic of this magnitude

My attitude in this case is that of a cynic. Within the last couple of months we learned of some supplies that had been stockpiled in Puerto Rico that the U.S Government's FEMA office had essentially forgotten about. They would have been available after the disasters that recently hit that island last year, but nobody remembered them. That is the problem with big governments - they LOSE things. Then, because they can't find the supplies they need they look like idiots. Whereas if FEMA had just bothered to look, they would have found a lot of emergency supplies and they would have looked like very good planners.

 

[vba_php]

have you guys seen this!?

Deputies stop stolen trailer full of toilet paper

GREENSBORO, N.C. (AP) — With toilet paper flying off the shelves, a North Carolina truck driver caused a stir when he was pulled over hauling 18,000 pounds of bathroom products

kwwl.com

hahahahaha. i just got back from wal mart too, and there is no damn TP on the shelves. =(

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Yep, I went to Wal Mart yesterday for a few cleaning supplies that weren't on the shelves there either. I was actually pleasantly surprised to see that our local Walgreens had just gotten a shipment of what I take to be a "store brand" of TP. But what the heck, as long as it isn't like sandpaper, it should do the job reasonably.

 

[Steve R.]

What I don't understand is why governments around the world are not better prepared for a pandemic of this magnitude, despite knowing it was not a case of if but when. The ability to convert one ventilator into potentially nine should have been part of contingency plans. It is just such short-term thinking.

Realistically, there is no preparation for a "black swan" event. Once it happens people frantically begin to scream that "something" should have been done. But think about it, we do not know in advance the nature and/or extent of the "black swan" event. Every-time one drives a car, it is possible that the battery will fail, a tire will fail, the transmission will fail. So does that mean we should tow a spare car? One can plan for a high probability event, such as a blown tire; but not everything. Consequently, we will never really be prepared.

Someday, the Earth may be hit by an asteroid. One such asteroid hit wiped-out the dinosaurs. To proactively respond to to the "why aren't we prepared" naysayers, shouldn't we have established a task force dedicated to be becoming prepared?

I have a fairly extensive first aid kit. Prior to the virus outbreak, my wife broke a finger, which was put in a brace by a doctor. We had to use the first aid kit to clean and re-bandage her finger. What I found out is that many of the supplies in the kit had expired, so we had to buy replacement items. My point - stocking up on supplies works up to a point, but eventually they need to be replaced. So how much $$$ needs to be dedicated to supplies that may never be used?

 

[Jon]

Realistically, there is no preparation for a "black swan" event...But think about it, we do not know in advance the nature and/or extent of the "black swan" event.

Forgive me, but I have to strongly disagree. We prepare for nuclear war. That is a "black swan" event. Yet there is far less money spent on preparing for something that is way more likely, a pandamic. Virus outbreaks are very risky. Look at Ebola, MERS and SARS in our very recent history. Look at Spanish flu that killed 50M to 100M. This is no mystery at all.

We know all about virus spread. There are models to predict what would happen, given certain viral coefficients. If it is airborne it is likely to spread faster than if just contagious, everything else being equal. Just look at Bill Gate's TED talk 4 years ago. He talks about the very same thing: nukes are not the threat, a pandemic is. So you can argue that there should not be any preparation for a pandemic because you cannot predict them, but I say otherwise. It is just a question of when, not if. History repeats itself.

So how much $$$ needs to be dedicated to supplies that may never be used?

If that argument holds water, then why do they do it with nukes?

 

[vba_php]

But what the heck, as long as it isn't like sandpaper, it should do the job reasonably.

one of my drivers suggested that kleenex tissue was a suitable alternative. I disagreed.

 

[Jon]

one of my drivers

Do you have a fleet of chauffeurs? You won't get through the eye of a needle that way!

 

[vba_php]

Do you have a fleet of chauffeurs? You won't get through the eye of a needle that way!

I can't believe you asked that question Jon. Didn't I ever tell you I'm a poor man?

 

[Jon]

We are all poor what with the coronavirus decimating the world economy. Now there is a long queue to get through the needle, and bog rolls.

 

[AccessBlaster]

Forgive me, but I have to strongly disagree. We prepare for nuclear war. That is a "black swan" event. Yet there is far less money spent on preparing for something that is way more likely, a pandamic. Virus outbreaks are very risky. Look at Ebola, MERS and SARS in our very recent history. Look at Spanish flu that killed 50M to 100M. This is no mystery at all.

We know all about virus spread. There are models to predict what would happen, given certain viral coefficients. If it is airborne it is likely to spread faster than if just contagious, everything else being equal. Just look at Bill Gate's TED talk 4 years ago. He talks about the very same thing: nukes are not the threat, a pandemic is. So you can argue that there should not be any preparation for a pandemic because you cannot predict them, but I say otherwise. It is just a question of when, not if. History repeats itself.


If that argument holds water, then why do they do it with nukes?

What were not prepared for is the dependents of goods and services FROM one source CHINA. We have to break our dependents from our supply masters.

We have to control our own manufacturing of critical supplies.

 

[vba_php]

We are all poor what with the coronavirus decimating the world economy. Now there is a long queue to get through the needle, and bog rolls.

the queue is very small jon. Per the king:

Narrow is the way and very few people find it

 

[Jon]

I didn't know they covered toilet rolls back in those days.