The crime rate in New York

Were you born yesterday?
No, and in the last 2/3 of a century i have learned how to practice critical and out-of-the-box thinking. Actually, out of the box came before critical. Critical requires self analysis. Something many people never achieve.

Beliefs are a dangerous thing, they inhibit growth and blind one to ideas that could conceivably change their lives forever.
 
Beliefs are a dangerous thing, they inhibit growth and blind one to ideas that could conceivably change their lives forever.
You are of course referring to beliefs you don't hold, right:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO: Because your beliefs are "truth".
 
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You are of course referring to beliefs you don't hold, right:ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO: Because your beliefs are "truth".
Facts are purer than beliefs. All you need for truth is to have beliefs and ignore everything else.
 
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Facts are purer than beliefs. All you need for truth is to have beliefs and ignore everything else.
There is a question of which facts you believe to be true. You have to go through your mental filter to decide what is a fact and what is not. This filter is subjective. And perhaps that is why Democrats and Republicans can come to completely different views on exactly the same topic.

The earth was flat, fact. according to nearly everyone. Until it wasn't.

"Ahah, but now we know it is roundish, so that is a fact!" Wait a minute, what if we are in a simulation and in fact the earth is just binary data?
 
Here's some bullshit for your "the crime rate is falling" claims from liberals:


Stores are being threatened with being declared a public nuisance if they report crimes. So the reporting goes down. So then liberals say see, the crime is down.

People know what they see with their own two eyes. Crime is not down, it's up.
 
I saw a video a couple of months ago posted by a shop owner who was having trouble with theft. He had videos of the crimes but the police were not interested. One of his employees recognized a repeat offender because she was an "influencer". He posted the video of her picking stuff up and putting them into her bag and walking out the door to her website.
 
Sigh, everyone and their sister wants to be an influencer. A few make real money, the rest it's just such an outweighing of young people not having their feet on the ground compared to any benefit the few who make it have.

It would be as if every young person in America spent all their time dribbling a basket ball around the house - literally all their free time, 24/7 - because "well some people in the NBA earn a lot of money".

Leadership is overrated. We need soldiers too. I for one have no interest in leadership 99% of the time - and I'm perfectly OK with that.
 
The talking heads of the lame stream media will ignore the update because it is inconvenient.
 

FBI quietly revises 2022 violent crime data, revealing increase and raising transparency concerns​

A recent report reveals the FBI revised its 2022 violent crime data, indicating a 4.5% increase instead of a decrease.


oops! Link here https://tribune.com.pk/story/250325...ng-increase-and-raising-transparency-concerns
You can see why I pay closer attention to the NYPD data. They have a strong culture of data collection as being an important part of crime-fighting. Giving the difficulty of getting good data, this is not a large revision. More of a concern is the difference between the DoJ data and the FBI data.
 
The article said that a 2.2% decrease was changed to 4.5% increase. That is a difference of 6.7% in the number of crimes counted compared to the previous year.
Going from -2.1% to +4.5% might seem like just a 6.6 percentage point shift, but since it starts from a small negative number, the actual change is much more significant. It’s really a 300% increase, not just a 6% rise.
 
Going from -2.1% to +4.5% might seem like just a 6.6 percentage point shift, but since it starts from a small negative number, the actual change is much more significant. It’s really a 300% increase, not just a 6% rise.
You can't compare rates of change like that. If the change was from 0.1% to 1.0%, would you call it a 900% increase? If the change was from 0% to 0.1% would you call it an infinite increase.

The change needs to be measured against the original amount, not the percentage changes. The difference in the count was 6.6% of the prior year's crimes and that is the number matters.

I see this error in the news media frequently. They will make a statement like housing costs are going up twice the rate of inflation. If housing prices were going up by 2% and general inflation was 1%, that would be a small difference. If housing costs were up by 10% and general inflation was 5% that would be big problem.

You can only compare rates of change by subtraction never division. Don't follow the practices of statistically ignorant media.
 

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