Trump Administration Predictions

You are not taking in the big picture. We should be tariffing finished goods, not raw materials or products close to the bottom of the supply chains.
That directly hurts American companies and American workers.

I'm not saying he is stupid, I'm saying that you can believe that he is as smart as you like.

The point is, he has already put a tariff on steel. That act was stupid.

By the way, Chinesium is manufactured by American companies, the same ones who pay for all the propaganda. The jokes on us, but hey unfettered capitalism is a wonderful thing.
The media has been reporting both Mexico and Canada are either calling Trump or in Trudeau's case visiting him in Mar-A-Lago. He's not even in office yet. They are wasting no time, they want to negotiate as quickly as possible. Pretty sure they're seeing "the big picture".
 
Unless its his properties.
Right. Trump's got time in his day to figure out what if any laws passed by Congress benefit his company's holdings. Somehow, I don't think he's going to get Congress to simply throw money at his companies which is currently how they pick winners and losers. They give HUGE loans to companies who have no ability to ever pay them back.

You really need to see an exorcist.
 
Right. Trump's got time in his day to figure out what if any laws passed by Congress benefit his company's holdings. Somehow, I don't think he's going to get Congress to simply throw money at his companies which is currently how they pick winners and losers. They give HUGE loans to companies who have no ability to ever pay them back.

You really need to see an exorcist.
One of many ways the Trumpster gamed the system
 
Congress to simply throw money at his companies which is currently how they pick winners and losers.
You mean like the Chips Act? Where we are trying to move chip making back to the US away from China? That spending?
 
You mean like the Chips Act? Where we are trying to move chip making back to the US away from China? That spending?
Who opened the computer market to China? Oh that's right Bill Clinton, prior to Clinton it was illegal to pass computer technology to China..
 
They give HUGE loans to companies who have no ability to ever pay them back.
In 2009 and 10, It's a good thing the People of the US, by way of the Federal Reserve, provided loans to the too-big-to-fail financial institutions.

Maybe they should have done what the Conservatives did in 1929. That worked out great.
 
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Who opened the computer market to China? Oh that's right Bill Clinton, prior to Clinton it was illegal to pass computer technology to China..
Capitalism did pure and simple. It was a much broader agreement than the picture you are painting. You brought up Clinton, he presided over the longest period of growth in the last 100 years, he was the only president to have a balanced budget.

You should probably limit your post to ones that don't prove we are better off without Republican Presidents. You know, it just makes you look bad. :cool:
 
You should probably limit your post to ones that don't prove we are better off without Republican Presidents. You know, it just makes you look bad. :cool:
Pointing out the fact that Bill Clinton has made us all less safe by giving the Chinese access computer technology doesn't make me look bad.
 
I've designed an industrial robot platform for positioning robotic arms and other industrial equipment in factories. Now it's time to start sourcing components for it. The vast majority are only available offshore.

One of the most important developments needed for this deglobalization/high tariffs world that they say we need, is automation.

How are we going to make that happen, if after all the tariffs, we can no longer build anything competitively?

What kind of operating system does the robot use, ros?
 
After catching up to the posts in this thread, I have to offer at least a bit of a dispute to something said here earlier.

@Thales750 - you have claimed that rather than being on the gold standard, we are on the oil standard. I have to at least question that. Oil is of no value unless you actually use it. Otherwise it might as well be a lump or gold or a lump of sandstone. You don't consume either of those two substances. But using oil consumes it and thus diminishes its supply, which in an otherwise constant demand environment will increase its price. Gold ISN'T consumed and yet the agreed-upon price still goes up. The demand is more or less the same and gold is being mined so supply should be going up, which means price should be going down - unless the whole thing is based on speculative pricing. When you deal in speculative pricing, you are now gambling on future demand. I firmly believe that US currency is a fiat currency and both gold and oil are at best pseudo-bases for currency value. Both float because there IS no absolute reference for the value of either one. The ability to speculate (the polite term for gambling at that level) causes short-term and longer-term instability. (See also the movie Trading Places.)

If I recall correctly, the problem with being on a standardized currency of ANY kind is that the ratio of currency in circulation to whatever is its backing forces you to limit the money supply, which leads to spiraling interest rates as supply remains fixed but demand goes up so prices go up, which leads to a depression and high unemployment. That is one of the reasons we had to get off the gold standard. Having a floating currency occurs - at least to some degree - because the demand for currency grows as populations and businesses grow, and inflation is an inevitable result of demand outpacing supply in a non-based currency. The trick is to predict the demand for currency to start your next project.

I remember reading a long time ago that the only REAL basis of value is the amount of work put into something. Whether we are talking about a lump of gold or a lump of coal or a circuit board or a house, its value starts based on the work it took to get it ready for sale. After that, it is a matter of who can out-bid their competitors for that thing you are selling, whatever it is. And the purchase price of the work is determined by the cost of raw materials plus the salaries of all contractors combined. It's almost (but not quite completely) a closed system in that wages control prices which control demand which depends on the ability to pay (i.e. wages) which then feeds back to prices in an interconnected system of commerce. Monetary value hasn't been on a standard for years, so like a multi-variate Simplex Optimization algorithm, we continue to play the child's game of Whack-a-Mole to try to keep inflation down but monetary supply up despite what else pops up now and then.
 
After catching up to the posts in this thread, I have to offer at least a bit of a dispute to something said here earlier.

@Thales750 - you have claimed that rather than being on the gold standard, we are on the oil standard. I have to at least question that. Oil is of no value unless you actually use it. Otherwise it might as well be a lump or gold or a lump of sandstone. You don't consume either of those two substances. But using oil consumes it and thus diminishes its supply, which in an otherwise constant demand environment will increase its price. Gold ISN'T consumed and yet the agreed-upon price still goes up. The demand is more or less the same and gold is being mined so supply should be going up, which means price should be going down - unless the whole thing is based on speculative pricing. When you deal in speculative pricing, you are now gambling on future demand. I firmly believe that US currency is a fiat currency and both gold and oil are at best pseudo-bases for currency value. Both float because there IS no absolute reference for the value of either one. The ability to speculate (the polite term for gambling at that level) causes short-term and longer-term instability. (See also the movie Trading Places.)

If I recall correctly, the problem with being on a standardized currency of ANY kind is that the ratio of currency in circulation to whatever is its backing forces you to limit the money supply, which leads to spiraling interest rates as supply remains fixed but demand goes up so prices go up, which leads to a depression and high unemployment. That is one of the reasons we had to get off the gold standard. Having a floating currency occurs - at least to some degree - because the demand for currency grows as populations and businesses grow, and inflation is an inevitable result of demand outpacing supply in a non-based currency. The trick is to predict the demand for currency to start your next project.

I remember reading a long time ago that the only REAL basis of value is the amount of work put into something. Whether we are talking about a lump of gold or a lump of coal or a circuit board or a house, its value starts based on the work it took to get it ready for sale. After that, it is a matter of who can out-bid their competitors for that thing you are selling, whatever it is. And the purchase price of the work is determined by the cost of raw materials plus the salaries of all contractors combined. It's almost (but not quite completely) a closed system in that wages control prices which control demand which depends on the ability to pay (i.e. wages) which then feeds back to prices in an interconnected system of commerce. Monetary value hasn't been on a standard for years, so like a multi-variate Simplex Optimization algorithm, we continue to play the child's game of Whack-a-Mole to try to keep inflation down but monetary supply up despite what else pops up now and then.
Definitely currency, as you say, is an IOU. But as long as oil is traded in dollars, it has real value in the global economy, separate from its IOU value.

By the way, there are several trillion barrels of known reserves of oil. Not sure how figuring in usage has much of an impact. Oil turns plants and animals into delivered food, it turns metals and other inorganic materials into more valuable ones, it turns complex organic molecules into usable materials, and pretty much makes every effort of the human race possible

So what better backer of currency is there?
 
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Definitely currency is an iou. But as long as oil is traded in dollars, it has real value in global ecomony separate from its iou value.
As much as I hate to say this, he is spot on. Research the Petro-dollar. It was the compromise when Nixon took us off the Gold Standard, albeit it was fractional at the time...
 
What kind of operating system does the robot use, ros?
Thank you for asking, we are just coming to the end of the mechanical design phase. I've had the GPT write some code (functions) in Python just to see how it would do in that environment. I'm leaning towards Python and it's multiple operating system capabilities.
Obviously, it will require some machine learning, I would hesitate to tie it directly to an LLM as that has the potential for the system getting in a bad mood and reeking havoc. I know, a little Sci-fi there.

There are several robotic platforms available, that are written in Python and have the ability to be customized for a system like ours.
The very next step is to take the 3D models of the components and put them in Blender. Blender is written in Python and has a Python console the GPT claims it could write a simulation the would be executed in Blender.

So that is the next goal.
 
By the way, there are several trillion barrels of known reserves of oil. Not sure how figuring in usage has much of an impact.

Simple. As long as it is in reserve, it has potential value. The moment after you use it, it is consumed and is no longer oil... at which time it has no value whatsoever. (If you made plastics or tires or other substances with it, THEY have value - but the oil does not.) That same idea applies to ANY commodity futures market. Value is ALWAYS defined by utility. Ever since Gronk the caveman traded pelts for a new spear, value has always been based on who would use something and how they would use it. No standards involved. Relative utility value. Money only comes into play because in a complex economy, it is impossible to have a formal list of values for every known item... so we invent dollars and put a price tag on things at the point of sale.
 
You mean like the Chips Act? Where we are trying to move chip making back to the US away from China? That spending?
When Trump gets Congress to rent all his vacant residential units for top dollar to house the illegal aliens, give us a heads up.
In 2009 and 10, It's a good thing the People of the US, by way of the Federal Reserve, provided loans to the too-big-to-fail financial institutions.
Interesting you bring that up. In the summer of 2008 when this was going on, McCain and Obama were hot on the campaign trail and all of a sudden, both of them decided to come back to DC to vote on the Senate bill. Since I thought both men were very bad for the country, I said - great - I will vote for which ever one votes AGAINST bailing out the banks. No joy there. Being cut from the same mold, they both voted to give my money to undeserving institutions. So, for the second time in my life, I voted for the third party candidate which I think might have been Ralph Nadar.

PS
1. Trump took no Presidential salary
2. Trump donated all income from his hotel properties that came from foreign nationals to the US Treasury
3. The Constitution, you know that stupid old worthless paper written by white slavers, does not prohibit the President from retaining control over his business interests. But, Trump handed off management to his children. So just stop complaining about what the Constitution allows.
 
Interesting you bring that up. In the summer of 2008 when this was going on, McCain and Obama were hot on the campaign trail and all of a sudden, both of them decided to come back to DC to vote on the Senate bill. Since I thought both men were very bad for the country, I said - great - I will vote for which ever one votes AGAINST bailing out the banks. No joy there. Being cut from the same mold, they both voted to give my money to undeserving institutions. So, for the second time in my life, I voted for the third party candidate which I think might have been Ralph Nadar.

PS
1. Trump took no Presidential salary
2. Trump donated all income from his hotel properties that came from foreign nationals to the US Treasury
3. The Constitution, you know that stupid old worthless paper written by white slavers, does not prohibit the President from retaining control over his business interests. But, Trump handed off management to his children. So just stop complaining about what the Constitution allows.
Wow, there is no bridge too far for you is there?

If we had not provided loans (which have been paid back) to those institution, we would have needed a global conflict (WW3) to get the economies back on track. Truly this answer of yours is literally the best example of you having absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Please, do try to make me look stupid on this one.

I'm glad you have such convictions, lucky for us, some of the people (the two you mentioned for example) have a real understanding of macroeconomics.

There are several well researched pieces on the differences between the the crash of 1929 and the crash of 2008. The Federal Reserve, and people like Obama and McCain, saved the world from a far worse fate then the Great Depression of 1929. Do you know what the main difference would have been had they not secured the Financial Sector with those loans?

Look it up.

I really can't speak to the net worth of the Trumpster. And really, I'm more concerned about his continued lack of comprehension of how economics works at that the global level. Not to mention his cabinet choices.
 

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