Trump Administration Predictions (1 Viewer)

[Mike Krailo]

The only country that will fight us on the tariffs is China. They unfortunately have much more to lose by playing that sort of game. They claim that it's not fair for them, but this is a monumental lie that they keep perpetuating. They have enjoyed placing tariffs on us with little to no push back for so long they think it's fair and normal. Well it's time they learned a lesson in what fairness in trade really is. As long as all the other countries trade fairly with us, well be just fine. It might take some time to adjust to not relying on them so much, but it is a growing pain that will benefit the country in the long run. I myself am willing to give up all things China in favor of all things our country and all of our other trading partners around the world. We need to be producers and self sufficient. It will take 10 years to get up to speed with a plan like that, but I think it's worth it.

 

[RogerCooper]

Very simple. The market doesn't like uncertainty. There is uncertainty with the application of tariffs being used in such an aggressive way. There is risk in doing what he is doing, and add on to that a bunch of over valued stocks that needed to be tamped down anyway. I have been waiting on the sidelines patiently for this very event so that I could get back in at lower prices. It's a very basic concept of buy low and sell high.

Now on the risk side, there is always the potential for negative reactions by foreign countries that balk at the idea of leveling the trading playing field and we get into a trade war that spins out of control. That is a fear, and it is the fear that drove the initial sell off plain and simple.

On the positive side, the tariff campaign could create a really good situation overall for our country in the long term and since the market is forward looking, that could be really good for the market bulls and retirement accounts. This will be even more likely to happen if the tax cuts and deregulation goes into effect. That is a key factor in my opinion.

There is no guarantee on anything except that Trump will continue to go about solving some long standing problems in a way that has never been done before.

Notice that the people putting their money on the line see I bad outcome, not a good outcome. And what is the good situation you are expecting to happen? Trump has justified the tariffs as allowing America to rebuild its manufacturing base and a way of getting to 0/0 tariffs. These are contradictory goals.

 

[RogerCooper]

What would impress you?

The sort of grand bargain Reagan negotiated on Social Security, reducing benefits (through higher retirement age) and increasing taxes, which made Social Security fiscally sound for almost 40 years. Or stop paying hospitals & medical specialists extra amounts on Medicare compared to GP's.

 

[RogerCooper]

The only country that will fight us on the tariffs is China. They unfortunately have much more to lose by playing that sort of game. They claim that it's not fair for them, but this is a monumental lie that they keep perpetuating. They have enjoyed placing tariffs on us with little to no push back for so long they think it's fair and normal. Well it's time they learned a lesson in what fairness in trade really is. As long as all the other countries trade fairly with us, well be just fine. It might take some time to adjust to not relying on them so much, but it is a growing pain that will benefit the country in the long run. I myself am willing to give up all things China in favor of all things our country and all of our other trading partners around the world. We need to be producers and self sufficient. It will take 10 years to get up to speed with a plan like that, but I think it's worth it.

My company does business with China (in both directions). They do not have high tariffs and they are a fairly easy country to do business with.

If you want to stop buying from China, that is your decision, why do you think you a right to impose your choices on others.

 

[Pat Hartman]

What do you attribute the big losses in the stock market since Trump started going ahead with tariffs?

People trading on fear and the bots, which are essentially stupid, picking up on that and exacerbating the problem.

Think about the crazy things people were driven to doing due to their fear of COVID. Remember, as far as the media is concerned, If it bleeds it leads and so they emphasize every negative story that comes along, especially when they think it will make Trump look bad. But Trump has been playing chicken for big stakes for years. You and your ilk are not going to panic him into backing down. And if you think that tariffs or pretty much anything can affect markets that quickly, you are an idiot. A nuclear attack, maybe, but tariffs have to trickle down and Trump - IF YOU WOULD JUST SHUT UP AND LEAVE THIS ALONE, really doesn't intend to have to enforce any tariffs at all. He really wants free trade. All you are doing is making this a crisis for nothing and driving the markets crazy because what they hate is uncertainty. If they believe the tariffs are stable, they will normalize and move on but as long as the press and the Democrats and the RINOs keep churning the waters, they will make you seasick with their wild movements. It is only if other countries believe that this chaos caused by the press and the Democrats will weaken Trump's resolve that they will stand up and try to continue to cheat us. If they believe that Trump means what he says and says what he means as he has proven time and time again, then they will jump in and make the best deal they can make and move on. Trump is all about making deals. "America first" doesn't actually mean that we have to crush the rest of the world. What it means is that we are simply going to stop taking being cheated laying down. We will be fair. A good deal is one where everyone comes out with something they want.

 

[moke123]

People trading on fear and the bots, which are essentially stupid, picking up on that and exacerbating the problem.

Think about the crazy things people were driven to doing due to their fear of COVID. Remember, as far as the media is concerned, If it bleeds it leads and so they emphasize every negative story that comes along, especially when they think it will make Trump look bad. But Trump has been playing chicken for big stakes for years. You and your ilk are not going to panic him into backing down. And if you think that tariffs or pretty much anything can affect markets that quickly, you are an idiot. A nuclear attack, maybe, but tariffs have to trickle down and Trump - IF YOU WOULD JUST SHUT UP AND LEAVE THIS ALONE, really doesn't intend to have to enforce any tariffs at all. He really wants free trade. All you are doing is making this a crisis for nothing and driving the markets crazy because what they hate is uncertainty. If they believe the tariffs are stable, they will normalize and move on but as long as the press and the Democrats and the RINOs keep churning the waters, they will make you seasick with their wild movements. It is only if other countries believe that this chaos caused by the press and the Democrats will weaken Trump's resolve that they will stand up and try to continue to cheat us. If they believe that Trump means what he says and says what he means as he has proven time and time again, then they will jump in and make the best deal they can make and move on. Trump is all about making deals. "America first" doesn't actually mean that we have to crush the rest of the world. What it means is that we are simply going to stop taking being cheated laying down. We will be fair. A good deal is one where everyone comes out with something they want.

Can you explain how we are being cheated?

 

[Mike Krailo]

If you want to stop buying from China, that is your decision, why do you think you a right to impose your choices on others.

What is wrong with you, they refuse to trade on a level playing field. They increase their tariffs on our car manufactures and have been for many years on American products so that no one in their country will entertain the idea of buying American anything. They will happily sell you their products and factory services and that is the point of the whole problem. The Chinese government imposed this on their own people for our products.

My company does business with China (in both directions). They do not have high tariffs and they are a fairly easy country to do business with.

So there are of course many companies that essentially employ the services of the cheap labor in Chinese companies that will make a product for you like a fancy perfume bottle for example very cheaply. The only difficulty is with shipping containers on occasion like during the covid outbreak. What is your companies product that China buys from your company?

 

[Mike Krailo]

Notice that the people putting their money on the line see I bad outcome, not a good outcome. And what is the good situation you are expecting to happen? Trump has justified the tariffs as allowing America to rebuild its manufacturing base and a way of getting to 0/0 tariffs. These are contradictory goals.

What he is doing has never been done before on the scale he is doing it. There are tariffs, cleaning up FWA, Slashing taxes, Slashing regulations. This is everything needed to get the economy roaring back as long as all of these things are achieved.

The following are select excerpts from Mark Levin's take on what Trump is doing and how it differs from what has been done before.

From the founding to 1913, we didn't have a federal income tax. There was a short temporary one during the civil war that was ruled unconstitutional. During this time 95% of the government was funded by tariffs on a rate of about 20% on average.

There were two major industrial revolutions during that time period. 1750 to 1850 we had no income tax, only tariffs. Then the second one was from 1850 to 1913 to pass the federal income tax under the 16th amendment.

Both of these industrial revolutions took place while the government was being funded by tariffs.

Under Reagan, we had another economic boom after his massive tax cuts across the board. The economy grew as a result by almost 30% by the time he left office. Amazingly, it grew into the Clinton administration. What he did not do is bolster the type of free trade that Trump is now pushing. Reagan's record in that area was not that great.

In the 1930's there was a massive increase in spending. There wasn't slashing of taxes. There wasn't slashing of regulations. The depression went on for 10 years from 1929 to 1939.

We have had two great depressions. The first great depression happened from 1873 to 1879. The great Milton Friedman (a libertarian) said "The Great Depression that occurred from 1929 to 1939 was NOT due to tariff's, it was due to monetary policy created by the Federal Reserve. So when the money should have been freed up for investment at the time when the economy is beginning to contract, he has argued that what the Federal Reserve did is they took a bad recession and turned it into a depression by tightening, tightening, tightening the money supply."

In those first four years from 1929 to 1933, the money supply fell by 33%. This meant that there wasn't enough cash available for people to buy things or invest because the Fed contracted the monetary policy so much, the contracting economy collapsed.

Trump is doing nothing like what was done by FDR with all of his socialist policies and he certainly is not in charge of monetary policy. That's the Fed's job. Trump is pro growth of the private sector. Socialists on the other hand want a big wasteful spending government that will just give them whatever they can take from individuals that actually work to achieve the American Dream. He is for the middle class and working class.

We can't even build ships anymore, at least at a pace that can match China. We are way to reliant on other countries for what we do.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Even the one's someone may think is silly, cause you never know.

Maybe we wouldn't know, but we would have a damned good guess about value if someone wanted a million bucks to study the "Mating Habits of the Central African Tse-Tse Fly" - which even I could guess would be of limited use despite being a chemist, not a zoologist or entomologist.

 

[Mike Krailo]

The reaction to Trumps administration is insane. Check out this poll among the far left folks among us. This is unacceptable no matter who you are.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

I can't say that everything Trump does makes me happy. He is a bit abrasive for my taste in politics. But he is pushing the exposure of cheats and fiscal scoundrels, so I can look the other way on the abrasiveness. He is also pushing for leveling the tariff playing field. Too many countries see us as the goose who lays golden eggs so they do their best to suck as much wealth from us as they can. Because they don't want to give up their power over their people by educating them and thus risking that they find out how crooked they have been. Oh, wait... DJT's been showing us some of that problem, too.

This YT article was an interesting little finding, an explanation of rehypothecation in the Fed and a discovery of federal agencies that were making "free money" to pay their bills. Musk discussed it recently, but this is a nice explanation of what is actually going on.

Once THIS money tap gets shut off, a LOT of offices are going to have to start toeing the line on spending because the free money taps will close.

 

[Pat Hartman]

Can you explain how we are being cheated?

Examine the way countries manipulate their currency. China is a huge cheater.
Examine the way China subsidizes certain of their own industries such as steel when they want to decimate our industries.
Examine the tariffs and trade barriers currently in place against American goods.

We started down this path after WWII with the Marshall plan since we were the last economy left standing and we were doing our best to get everyone else back on their feet. We could afford to always give the others exceptional deals to ensure they could win in any competitive situation. We simply continued the practice with most of our other trading partners. Well, Europe and Japan have been back on its feet for decades and the time to stop giving them the advantage in all situations has long past. This also includes US having to pay for their defense. They shirk their agreed contributions to NATO and the UN and we pick up the slack. Well, the rich Uncle Sam, isn't so rich anymore and it's time to stop pretending we are.

 

[Pat Hartman]

rehypothecation

It's been a long time since I came across a word that was totally new to me. I knew (sort of) how the same dollar kept getting loaned out and moved through the economy but I had never read anything that gave the process a name.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

The article explained to me (indirectly) why the last time I bought a car, the loan payments ended up being forwarded to a bank other than the one through whom I made the original loan. The speaker explained that in order to get the cash (or equivalent), other banks would sell their interest in loan certificates or whatever. And therefore, I knew why my loan from many years ago didn't stay with the original bank. Before seeing this article, I thought it was a rare occurrence, but now I see that it is not.

 

[RogerCooper]

What is wrong with you, they refuse to trade on a level playing field. They increase their tariffs on our car manufactures and have been for many years on American products so that no one in their country will entertain the idea of buying American anything. They will happily sell you their products and factory services and that is the point of the whole problem. The Chinese government imposed this on their own people for our products.


So there are of course many companies that essentially employ the services of the cheap labor in Chinese companies that will make a product for you like a fancy perfume bottle for example very cheaply. The only difficulty is with shipping containers on occasion like during the covid outbreak. What is your companies product that China buys from your company?

Yes, we actually do buy bottles from China and make the stuff which goes into the bottles. That is smart business. And we sell to China.

If the Chinese government is making Chinese products too cheap, how are Americans being taken advantage of? It sounds like Americans are taking advantage of foolishness of the Chinese government.

 

[RogerCooper]

really doesn't intend to have to enforce any tariffs at all. He really wants free trade.

Donald Trump has said the contrary many times. Are you calling Trump a liar.

 

[Pat Hartman]

Donald Trump has said the contrary many times. Are you calling Trump a liar.

Read between the lines. Trump has got the Dems and RINOs and the press and people like you fanning the flames and giving China courage to resist negotiating. They think Trump will cave under pressure. What is he supposed to say? Of course he loves the money the tariffs bring in and that is what he says. Why do you take those statements literally but not the ones where he says he wants fair trade? He's been calling for fair trade since he first came on the scene as a man about town in NYC more than 50 years ago. He was the darling of the RE scene and the most eligible Batchelor in town.

JUST SHUT UP already. Stop fanning the flames and let this play out for a few months. Once the Chinese realize that Trump isn't backing down, they'll come to the table. Right now there are so many people trying to undermine this policy that it is creating chaos. Trump has tried his best to make the tariffs fair in context but he has ALWAYS preached fair trade and that hasn't changed.

 

[RogerCooper]

Read between the lines. Trump has got the Dems and RINOs and the press and people like you fanning the flames and giving China courage to resist negotiating. They think Trump will cave under pressure. What is he supposed to say? Of course he loves the money the tariffs bring in and that is what he says. Why do you take those statements literally but not the ones where he says he wants fair trade? He's been calling for fair trade since he first came on the scene as a man about town in NYC more than 50 years ago. He was the darling of the RE scene and the most eligible Batchelor in town.

JUST SHUT UP already. Stop fanning the flames and let this play out for a few months. Once the Chinese realize that Trump isn't backing down, they'll come to the table. Right now there are so many people trying to undermine this policy that it is creating chaos. Trump has tried his best to make the tariffs fair in context but he has ALWAYS preached fair trade and that hasn't changed.

So I should ignore Trump's rejection of tariff elimination with the EU.

"Fair trade" is just a code word for tariffs. I take Trump's numerous pro-tariff words and actions literally.

 

[AccessBlaster]

Trump should've stayed with reciprocal tariffs instead of these aggregated numbers.

 

[Pat Hartman]

Apparently, the deal wasn't actually fair. I don't know what made Trump refuse it but an honest report would have included that piece of information rather than implying that Trump was being unreasonable. You are always 100% willing to believe partial truths as long as they make Trump look bad. Always looking for the gotchas' I guess it's a way. But, you've made up your mind and I'm not taking the time to find an honest report where they include details of why Trump refused. You can if you want the truth though or maybe someone who has the details will reply.