Coronavirus - are we all doomed?

[moke123]

I am concerned with the UK's policy of "survival of the fittest." While the rest of the world is in lockdown, our crazy government seems to think its best to let it spread. "Herd immunity" they call it. I called it death in the 100's of thousands.

I saw a report on that and couldn't believe it.

We have about a dozen confirmed cases and 50 + in quarantine. Bear in mind the population of our county will fit in the largest college stadium. They are all community spread cases.

Our schools are closed for at least 2 weeks.
Many businesses are closed or working remotely.
My agency is working remotely where possible.
All court cases have been continued until at least the end of april.
The jails and prisons are closed to most visitors and any court matters are being handled via teleconference.
A large number of our hospital staff is quarantined due to exposure.

This is real.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Our public school system state-wide was officially closed on Friday by our governor Jon Bell Edwards. The order extended to parochial schools. As a result, my schedule for the next four weeks is officially crazy. We have to watch my grandson for two of those four weeks. Fortunately, my step-daughter can help provide some schooling materials we can use to keep him from totally vegging out for the month.

 

[vba_php]

The Psychological Reason Coronavirus Is Prompting People to Hoard Toilet Paper

Of all the personal essentials needed in the event of a national health concern, why are people stocking up on Charmin?

www.mentalfloss.com

 

[AccessBlaster]

But it’s important to note that a perceived scarcity of Charmin is not proof of a global health crisis. It’s only proof that some people are taking an abundance of caution.

 

[vba_php]

can anyone see the irony here?

 

[CJ_London]

The death rate for flu is well under 0.1%. The death rate for Corona is estimated by many to be 1-2%. i.e. it is about 20 times more deadly than flu.

to put that in perspective. SARS was much more deadly, running at around 10% death rate - 774 people died worldwide, but only 8098 people were diagnosed with it.

death rate for flu is around 0.1% (not well under), (think the last week of January it was 0.09% in the UK). The NHS has stats - in the UK around 6000 people consult their GP with flu symptoms every week (at least for the last few months) - which implies around 6 people die of flu every week. The data is a bit high level - someone might go back to their GP more than once so perhaps are double counted. And of course some people don't bother and just get over it so they do not get reported. So as a comparison, over 11 weeks 66,000 people have reported having flue of which 66 people died so far this year v 1400 reported with corona virus with 35 deaths so far.

Not really enough data at the moment but from what I can discern, Corona virus can take from 2 to 14 days to present itself (and that can be mild symptoms) and once presented can remain infectious for another 14 days - so in round terms if you think you have been in contact with someone who is infected you are risking others without presenting symptoms for 2 weeks and with symptoms for a further 2 weeks once they have presented. So somewhere between 16 and 28 days.

 

[Jon]

death rate for flu is around 0.1% (not well under)

Depends on your source, the year, country etc. The source I read said well under. But whatever the best estimate they have, it is a tiny fraction of the coronavirus.

So as a comparison, over 11 weeks 66,000 people have reported having flue of which 66 people died so far this year v 1400 reported with corona virus with 35 deaths so far.

You are comparing apples with oranges. This is a new epidemic. Flu isn't. The very nature of epidemics is that they start slow, but grow exponentially. The vast majority of people get infected later on, only a tiny proportion in the early stages. The corona figures you are quoting are the early stages. Look at any exponential graph and consider the area under that graph. You will note that the real action is later on. Quoting 66 people who have died so far this year is really quoting from way after the flu has taken off. So, if you want to be objective, look at the figures from when flu first started.

Essentially, pandemics is all about the math. How contagious is it? What is the viral coefficient? From memory, flu infects 1 to 2 other people, while coronavirus infects 2 to 3. So it is nearly twice as contagious. Then you have the hospitalisation rate. Then the death rate. It all doesn't bode well.

In Italy, they are saying that if it gets worse, the over 80's will got get the intensive care treatment.

Lets lock down the world.

Some Australian airlines expert predicts they will all go bust in a few weeks.

 

[Jon]

I hope I am wrong about all this. I will be self-isolating with my elderly father for 4 months. Not sure how I can cope by not going out for so long, it will drive me nuts! So, I'm gonna need to draw up all sorts of behavioural change plans so I change my lifestyle dramatically. No sport to watch on telly either!

Maybe lots of gardening, walks, reading books! I've cancelled my gym membership so will have to do some routines at home. I have a barbell, bullworker, bands. Will use those in my office.

Does anyone here have any plans while self-isolating, or are you not self-isolating?

 

[Jon]

Bill Gates, four years ahead of everybody else.

 

[vba_php]

I hope I am wrong about all this. I will be self-isolating with my elderly father for 4 months.

is he sick Jon?

 

[vba_php]

Bill Gates, four years ahead of everybody else.

he's got serious knowledge issues. he may end up in a mental institute. =)

 

[Jon]

No. But the government over here in the UK will soon be suggesting the over-70's go into lock-down for up to 4 months. There are not enough ventilators in the UK and the risk to the elderly is considerable. In my fathers age range, there is a 15% death rate.

 

[vba_php]

yikes! 70% of old people? is that what ur referring to?

<edit>
sorry, wrong words. 70 somethings. ok yeah, I get it.

 

[Jon]

The doctor who first reported the corona, he died and he was only mid-thirties.

 

[vba_php]

did he die from the virus?

 

[Jon]

I came up with an analogy yesterday. Imagine you are elderly. There is a mad axe-man in your local town, with a population of 20,000. If half of the population get infected with the corona, that is 100 dead. So, you can pop into town to get your milk for your coffee if you want. But there is a mad axe-man in town, who will wipe out 100 people over the next 4 months! He tends to go for the elderly, but anybody is at risk. It amounts to the same thing!

"I'll take mine black thanks!"

 

[Jon]

Yes. And his doctor colleague, although I don't know their age.

Some young medical workers info: https://www.businessinsider.com/why-coronavirus-killed-young-chinese-doctors-2020-2?r=US&IR=T

 

[NauticalGent]

@CJ_London ,

The facts and stats you mention is what I did not account for until recently while I was home. I happened to be watching a lesser known news channel that broke it down much like you did.

The important information is not getting to the masses - for whatever reason - so most Americans are not giving this issue its proper sense of urgency. I dont know if somehow our hygiene and "superior" standard of living is sufficient enough to stave off the virus. I hope the price of our overconfidence and arrogance isn't too steep.

 

[NauticalGent]

bullworker

Showing your age there, Jon!

 

[Jon]

A friend gave it to me when I was 17. It is still in perfect condition. They don't half last! Take up little space and you can do a fairly quick routine with them.

Regarding your other comments, people only react when it hits them in the here and now. When I talk about projections, people just look at me with a blank face. They don't emotionally feel the reality until it is actually happening.

Regarding hygiene, I saw a simulation that showed the difference between washing your hands and not washing them. It essentially slows the spread. In the simulation, when split testing not-washing vs washing hands, the not-washing population had 40 million infected, while the washing group had 30 million infected. So, while it helps, it only partially helps. Don't kid yourself into thinking that you are safe due to good hygiene habits.

Instead, this is the unspoken truth:

=> Most transmission is airborne.

Just breathing infected peoples air can lead to your own infection.

I feel like the governments like to brush over details like this. "Wash your hands!" they all cry. But how about giving people the facts that most transmission is airborne?